I．National stocks

      This week (as of Nov. 23rd), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 413,300 tonnes, down 11,900 tonnes by 2.8% from 425,200 tonnes last week, down 3,200 tonnes by 0.8% from 416,500 tonnes month-on-month, and down 87,600 tonnes by 17.5% from 500,900 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 96,500 tonnes, down 5,200 tonnes by 5.1% from 101,700 tonnes last week.

      Domestic palm oil stock reverses the increase to drop this week for fewer vessels arriving at ports. But vessels purchases are still carried on amid improved import profits, so import volume of 24-degree palm oil will average at 430,000 tonnes in November and December, according to Cofeed. Besides, palm oil has entered into slack season for its low solidification point. In the meantime, Chinese government will officially implement the new GB (national standard) for vegetable oil from December 21st, 2018, which means all proportion of ingredients must be marked on packaging oil. In this context, manufacturers will be more prudent in adding palm oil into blend oil for its low reputation in blending. And this will definitely curbs palm oil consumption. On the whole, later inventory of palm oil is predicted to keep increasing at a relatively slow pace. 

      Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years

      II. Goods Arrivals 

      Palm oil import volume has reduced slightly this week for slower-than-expected arrivals. According to Cofeed, import volume is reduced by 20,000 tonnes to 530,000-550,000 tonnes for November (24-degree palm oil 380,000-400,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000-150,000 tonnes), unchanged at 580,000-600,000 tonnes for December (24-degree palm oil 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000-150,000 tonnes), and unchanged at 410,000-430,000 tonnes for January, 2019 (24-degree palm oil 280,000-300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000 tonnes). (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated upon latest shipment and violation in shipment).