Today (Nov. 28th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price steps down today, among which Non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock, Russian soybean goes lower by 180 yuan/tonne to 3,400 yuan/tonne, and GM soybean is not offered. Currently, more and more oil plants choose to process domestic soybean. On the other side, Brazil may ship a higher-than-forecast volume of 5.10 Mln tonnes of soybean to China in November as many oil mills in South American are active in reselling their soybean under dismal crush margins, whilst it will be able to harvest its new early soybean in mid-to-late December after seeding at a record pace; hence, later soybean supply will post a smaller-than-expected gap even if trade war sours. And this will bring bearish pressure to the imported soybean market. In general, as the wait-and-see mood remains strong in market amid uncertainties in trade disputes, distribution market will probably stay stable to adjust narrowly.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed goes down by 0.01-0.04 yuan/kg, for oil mills remain cautious in purchasing and some have even suspended as new cottonseed is on the rise, aside from the weak performance of cottonseed oil and meal. But some low prices still post some rises since the overall price declines are restricted by a small volume from Xinjiang under traffic tensions and expensive freights. The market is in cautious mood on account of the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, so short-term cottonseed market will probably fluctuate narrowly to go weak, and buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean rebounded overnight as investors set to adjust positions ahead of the meeting. Today, soybean oil slows down its losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), and palm oil rebounded modestly. In spots markets, domestic soybean oil broadly declines, while palm oil rebounds partially to attract some deals at low yet in small volume. Currently, soybean oil stock has dwindled to 1.79 Mln tonnes since operation rate has been reduced for swollen soybean meal inventories, but oil oversupply pattern still persists and Brazil is to harvest its soybean in mid-to-late next month; hence, oil market is under pressure. However, later market will depend on the meeting, whose future is very cloudy now, so oil market will largely post weak fluctuations by the end of this month. If there are signs of rebounds, buyers can make some replenishment on the dips.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,240-5,400 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down 10-20 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 5,280-5,290, Rizhao 5,370, Zhangjiagang 5,400, and Guangzhou 5,240).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,100-4,250 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, rebounding 10-20 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4240-4250, stable; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,200, stable; Guangzhou 4,100, up 10; Xiamen 4,200).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil stays stable to fall today, of which it is 6,130-6,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Fujian not offered; Guangdong 6,250; Guangxi 6,130, down 20). Currently, oil is still in ample supply, of which rapeseed meal stocks have reached 630,000 tonnes and soybean oil stocks total 1.79 Mln tonnes. Meanwhile, palm oil inventories have been weighing on production regions, and Brazil is to harvest its soybean earlier than expected on the other side. Under such circumstances, rapeseed oil market is dragged down to correction territory. But finally, all will depend on the meeting, after which oil market will rally if the two countries fail to reach a trade truce, but will run weak otherwise. Buyers can just keep a light stock at present.
Cottonseed oil: Soybean oil extends its losses on the DCE, and soybean oil spots decline by 10-20 yuan/tonne for its historical high stock. Cottonseed oil sees some declines of 30-100 yuan/tonne today since it has been trading a little for limited blending demand. The price decline is restricted by oil mills’ efforts in supporting price amid small output and low prices. On the whole, buyers have been cautious with the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese presidents, so short-term cottonseed oil market will likely post weak fluctuations and buyers can just take hand-to-mouth buying.
(USD $1=CNY 6.95)
