Today (Nov. 29th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean extended its sharp rebounds last night, while meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) swing lower after a higher open. In spots market, some oil mills whose quotations are a little higher still see losses for dismal demand, while some have enjoyed some slight rallies today, in spite of a light trading volume. The price is 3,110-3,200 yuan/tonne, fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday. (Tianjin 3,130, Shandong 3,110-3,150, Jiangsu 3,110-3,140, Donguan 3,140-3,160, and Guangxi 3,180-3,200). While Brazil will market its soybean earlier than expected, China still holds some stocks. Meanwhile, hog farmers are unwilling to make replenishment as the African swine fever (ASF) wreaks havoc, and aquaculture has also entered into the slack season. Besides, downstream companies are taking a cautious approach in purchasing before the upcoming meeting. In this context, soybean meal spots market is weak in rises for the dismal demand, especially when some oil mills are holding swollen inventories. Generally speaking, later market will largely depend on the uncertain trade progress, but many downstream companies have nearly run short after standing on the sidelines for approximately one month; hence, meal prices will post large rallies if the US and China fail to reach a trade deal later this week, but the price will still go weak otherwise. Buyers out of stock can replenish appropriately on the dips, but should be prudent in chasing up the price.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stays steady to rise today, of which it is 2,200-2,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,220, up 20; Guangdong 2,260, up 10; Fujian 2,330, stable). Rapeseed meal market is under pressure, for some oil mills have halted for swollen inventories as its demand is soft when downstream buyers are awaiting the meeting outcome, in addition to the slack demand from aquaculture and the outbreaks of the ASF. But finally, the trend will be guided by the meeting, and rapeseed meal market will run weaker if the US and China reach a trade truce. However, the downside will be offset partially by its recent slumps and sharp rebounds of US soybean upon a trade deal. That is to say, there will be little room for declines even if the trade war ceases, but it will rebound sharply for empty inventories among downstream companies if the trade war sours. Currently, buyers are suggested to replenish properly on the dips and remain cautious in chasing up the price.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,900-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 56,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep stable: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,330 USD/tonne, and 1,600 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Holders are under pressure for an increasing stock amid thin demand at home, in addition to a looser quotation in Peru amid relatively rapid fishing progress, so short-term fishmeal market will probably stay stable to go weak.
Cottonseed meal: While soybean meal spots fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne, cottonseed meal steps down by 50 yuan/tonne partially today. For one thing, meal demand has been subject to the spread of African swine fever and bird flu. For another, cottonseed meal has been trading a little as buyers remain cautious for the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese presidents. But there is still little room for price declines, for oil mills are hoarding their small supply when the price of cottonseed is high. On the whole, short-term cottonseed meal may still post narrow fluctuations to go weak and buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying while focusing on the trade progress.
(USD $1=CNY 6.95)
