Today (Nov. 29th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price erases its loss to steady today, among which Non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock, Russian soybean is 3,400 yuan/tonne, and GM soybean is not offered. Currently, more and more oil plants choose to process domestic soybean. On the other side, Brazil may ship a higher-than-forecast volume of 5.10 Mln tonnes of soybean to China in November as many oil mills in South American are active in reselling their soybean under dismal crush margins, whilst it will be able to harvest its new early soybean in mid-to-late December after seeding at a record pace; hence, later soybean supply will post a smaller-than-expected gap even if trade war sours. And this will bring bearish pressure to the imported soybean market. In general, as the wait-and-see mood remains strong in market amid uncertainties in trade disputes, distribution market will probably stay stable to adjust narrowly.
Cottonseed: Cottonseed market still gets curbed, for oil mills remain cautious in purchasing and some have even suspended their purchases while new cottonseed is on the rise and cottonseed oil and meal markets extend to go weak. But the overall price declines are restricted under a small volume from Xinjiang under traffic tensions and expensive freights and ginning plants’ sentiment in hoarding to support the price. The market is in cautious mood on account of the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, so short-term cottonseed market will probably fluctuate narrowly to go weak, and buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean extended its gains amid short coverings last night. And today, soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) posts rises, and palm oil on the DCE also increases sharply after it rebounded over 2% on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange yesterday for weak Malaysian?ringgit and growing expectations of an El?Nino event. In spots market, domestic soybean oil increases to attract some deals, but palm oil sees a small trading volume in spite of price hikes as few buyers are chasing up the price. The oil market is still crippled by such bearish fundamentals as soft crude oil, domestic oil oversupply patterns, coupled by a possible volume of 3.0-3.3 Mln tonnes of soybean shipped from Brazil in January after an earlier-than-expected harvest. However, later market will largely depend on the meeting, before which oil market will mainly post weak fluctuations. Buyers are suggested to keep a light stock due to the uncertainties in trade disputes. And buyers out of soybean oil stock can replenish in small batches on the dips, but must be careful in chasing up palm oil price amid its large hikes.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is mainly priced at 5,250-5,400 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up 10-20 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 5,290-5,300, Rizhao 5,380, Zhangjiagang 5,400, and Guangzhou 5,250).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,180-4,330 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 50-80 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4,320-4,330, up 60; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,280, up 80; Guangzhou 4,180, up 50; Xiamen 4,300).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil stays stable to rise today, of which it is 6,160-6,360, up 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Fujian not offered; Guangdong 6,280, up 20; Guangxi 6,180, up 20). Currently, oil is still in ample supply since rapeseed meal and soybean oil both hold large stocks. Meanwhile, palm oil inventories have been weighing on production regions, and later soybean supply gap will be far smaller-than-forecast in China as Brazil is to harvest its soybean earlier than expected on the other side. Under such circumstances, rapeseed oil market is curbed and will likely extend weak fluctuations by the end of this month. Later market will depend on the meeting between the US and Chinese leaders, after which oil market will rally if the two leaders fail to reach a trade truce, but will run weak otherwise. Buyers can just keep a light stock at present.
Cottonseed oil: Oils advance after a higher open on the DCE, and soybean oil spots increase by 10-20 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed oil stays stable today in that its decline has been restricted by oil mills’ efforts to support the price for small output and low prices. But cottonseed oil trades light under limited blending demand as oil oversupply continues. Buyers are cautious in face of an uncertain future of the meeting, so short-term oil market may post weak fluctuations. Buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
(USD $1=CNY 6.95)
