Soybean: Soybean stock has increased this week. For one thing, the total crush volume has dropped to 1.69 Mln tonnes, whilst soybean contracts signed this week and in the preliminary stages have gradually arrived at factories. For another, local subsidies of China Grain Reserve Corporation have started to process the rotated soybean of state reserve, and more and more oil mills have also been processing domestic soybean. This week (as of Nov. 23rd), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 6,660,300 tonnes, up 274,000 tonnes by 4.29% from 6,448,300 tonnes and up by 58.81% from 4,193,700 tonnes of the same period last year. For a smaller volume to ports in December to February 2019, later soybean stock will likely drop if trade conflicts are not settled.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Soybean meal stock has declined fractionally this week amid a reduced operation rate, in spite of a light trading volume. This week (as of Nov. 23rd), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills totals 1,001,000 tonnes, down 26,600 tonnes by 2.58% from 1,027,600 tonnes last week, yet up by 48.84% from 672,500 tonnes of the same period last year. The crush volume will maintain at around 1.70 Mln tonnes next week, but soybean meal stock will not change much, on account of the low end demand and downstream companies’ caution in purchasing and taking delivery before the upcoming meeting between the US and Chinese leaders.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills continue to decline this week. This week (as of November 23rd), contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,914,100 tonnes unfinished, down 538,000 tonnes by 12.08% from 4,452,100 tonnes last week, and down by 28.35% from 5,463,450 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
