I．National stocks
This week (as of Nov. 30th), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 419,600 tonnes, up 6,300 tonnes by 1.5% from 413,300 tonnes last week, up 19,400 tonnes by 4.8% from 400,200 tonnes month-on-month, yet down 83,100 tonnes by 16.5% from 502,700 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 94,900 tonnes, down 1,600 tonnes by 1.6% from 96,500 tonnes last week.
Edible palm oil stock has increased this week. Palm oil trades light as buyers remain cautious amid price declines of crude oil and palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, although the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has reached 1,120 yuan/tonne, higher by 17 yuan/tonne from 1,103 yuan/tonne last week.
The import volume of 24-degree palm oil is forecast at 500,000-520,000 tonnes for some cargoes have been delayed to December from November. But palm oil demand has been waning as the weather gets cool. In the meantime, Chinese government will officially implement the new GB (national standard) for vegetable oil from December 21st, 2018, which means all proportion of ingredients must be marked on packaging oil. In this context, manufacturers will be more prudent in adding palm oil into blend oil for its low reputation in blending. And this will definitely curbs palm oil consumption. On the whole, later inventory of palm oil is predicted to keep increasing, yet at a relatively slow pace.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
Palm oil import volume is raised in December for some shipping delays from November. According to Cofeed, import volume is basically unchanged from the discreet value given last week at 530,000-550,000 tonnes for November (24-degree palm oil 370,000-380,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000-180,000 tonnes), raised higher by 700,000 tonnes to 650,000-670,000 tonnes for December (24-degree palm oil 500,000-520,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000-170,000 tonnes), and unchanged at 410,000-430,000 tonnes for January, 2019 (24-degree palm oil 280,000-300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000 tonnes). (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated upon latest shipment and violation in shipment).
