Today (Dec. 4th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean settled up with gains overnight for the provisional trade truce and the response of the Secretary of USDA that China will return to US soybean market right after the New Year. Meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fall further with their losses enlarged gradually, and soybean meal spots follow to step down and trade a little. The price is 3,030-3,100 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 30-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 3,040, Shandong 3,040-3,100, Jiangsu 3,040-3,130, Dongguan 3,030-3,100, and Guangxi 3,100-3,110). Soybean meal demand is dismal now in that hog replenishment has been constrained by the rampant African swine fever (ASF) and the aquaculture is also in the off-season; hence, soybean meal is still in sufficient supply, although its stock has declined by 6% to 940,000 tonnes in coastal areas. With the addition of a trade detente, soybean meal is forced to extend its price declines. But it still remains unknown whether China will cancel the additional tariff for US soybean, and if it is now canceled, oil mills will not digest US soybean amid losses. As the market is still digest the bad pressure from the trade detente, soybean meal market is in weak corrections, so buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stays stable to fall today, of which it is 2,150-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,200, stable; Guangdong 2,190, down 10; Fujian 2,230, down 30). Meal demand has been soft, for the aquaculture has almost stopped amid a drop in temperature and the ASF still wreaks havoc. In this case, rapeseed meal has seen a swelling stock and some oil mills have to restrict production and even halt. The price decline now is limited by the uncertainties in the future of the US and China relationship, and the market is still digesting the bearish pressure from the trade truce. In addition, China is said to return to the US soybean market. Generally speaking, short-term rapeseed meal will run weak amid fluctuations. Buyers can just wait and replenish on the dips after steady price falls.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is 10,200-10,300 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,900-11,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200-11,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is 10,200 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 76,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 56,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to decline: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,280 USD/tonne, and 1,560 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content, each down by 20 USD/tonne from yesterday. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Peruvian manufacturers are under pressure and offer a lower price on account of a strong fishing outlook. In addition, the stock pressure keeps increasing in China, which is also bad to the market. Therefore, short-term fishmeal market will stay stable to go weak.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on the DCE fall speedily today amid the provisional trade truce. Soybean meal spots follow to decline 30-60 yuan/tonne, and cottonseed meal falls by 20 yuan/tonne for its light trading volume when buyers still remain cautious under the outbreaks of the ASF and the bird flu. But the future of trade disputes between the US and China still remains unknown. In addition, cottonseed is of high price while cottonseed meal is not in huge supply, so there is limited space for cottonseed meal to see further price declines. On the whole, cottonseed meal will likely extend its weak fluctuations. And market participants can keep an eye on whether China will restore US soybean imports.
(USD $1=CNY 6.84)
