Today (Dec. 5th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean extended its gains overnight amid a trade detente, while futures for meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) continue to fall today. And in spots market, domestic soybean meal follows to decline and trades a little. The price is 2,980-3,100 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday. (Tianjin 3,010, Shandong 2,980-3,100, Jiangsu 3,000-3,100, Dongguan 3,000-3,100, and Guangxi 3,080-3,110). In spite of its adequate supply in coastal areas, soybean meal is weak in demand as hog replenishment is crippled by the rampant African swine fever (ASF) and aquaculture has entered into slack season. In addition, the US and China relationship has been in a detente now, and meals on the DCE even slumped in afternoon trade yesterday. Therefore, soybean meal has been forced to extend its declines. But it still remains unknown whether China will lift the additional tariff levied on US soybean, and it will be another story if the two countries cannot negotiate to reach a deal within 90 days. In this view, the price decline may gradually slow down in the next few days, and there may be possibility of technical rebounds in the following two sessions, but it is hard to post large hikes without any practical bullish factors. Buyers can just await to replenish on the dips after steady falls.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for rapeseed meal stays stable to rise today, of which it is 2,150-2,250 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,180, stable; Guangdong 2,190, stable; Fujian 2,250, up 20). Rapeseed meal stock has decreased by 28% to 26,500 tonnes last week for a drop in operation rate, and the market stops declining thanks to the technical rebounds in futures. But demand for meals now is subject to the pale aquaculture in winter and the rampant ASF. In addition, the US and China are in a trade truce. Under such bearish factors, rapeseed meal price is hard to show marked rises, and may post weak fluctuations in the short term. Buyers are suggested to take hand-to-mouth basis at present.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Northern ports: price is down by 200 yuan/tonne to 10,000-10,100 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, down by 100 yuan/tonne to 10,800-11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and down by 100 yuan/tonne to 11,100-11,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: price is down by 200 yuan/tonne to 10,000 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, down by 100 yuan/tonne to 10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and down by 100 yuan/tonne to 11,100 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 76,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 36,000 tonnes, Shanghai 56,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to decline: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,250 USD/tonne and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content, each down by 30 USD/tonne from yesterday. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Peruvian market continues to lower down the quotation whilst the new fishing has been half completed. In addition, the stock pressure keeps increasing in China, which is also bad to the market. Therefore, short-term fishmeal market will stay stable to go weak.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on the DCE extend to decline today as the market is still digesting bearish impacts from the trade truce. Soybean meal spots step down by 10-20 yuan/tonne, and cottonseed meal also goes down by 50-80 yuan/tonne as buyers remain cautious in purchasing amid dismal demand from the aquaculture. But the price decline is now restricted as its output is small and cottonseed price is high, in addition that the trade spat is yet to cease thoroughly. On the whole, cottonseed meal market will post weak fluctuations in the short run, and participants can keep an eye on whether China will go back to US soybean market.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
