I．National stocks
This week (as of Dec. 7th), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 452,200 tonnes, up 32,600 tonnes by 7.8% from 419,600 tonnes last week, up 49,600 tonnes by 12.3% from 402,600 tonnes month-on-month, yet down 68,800 tonnes by 13.2% from 521,000 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 95,000 tonnes, up 100 tonnes by 0.1% from 94,900 tonnes last week.
Edible palm oil continues to increase in stock this week: Due to some vessel delays from November and relatively more vessel purchases in December, palm oil arrivals at ports will keep going up in volume later. According to Cofeed, the import volume of 24-degree palm oil will be around 500,000-520,000 tonnes in December. Besides, the price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has been narrowed down slightly to around 1,060 yuan/tonne until this Friday, down by 60 yuan/tonne from 1,120 yuan/tonne last week. And palm oil has seen a reduced blend amount as the weather gets cool. In particular this week, oil futures drop further both at home and abroad, which has severely crippled market confidence. In this context, palm oil has seen a light market as buyers are cautious in purchasing. Generally, vessel purchases are still going on while the demand is soft, so domestic palm oil stock will keep increasing later.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II．Goods Arrivals
According to Cofeed, import volume is reduced by 70,000 tonnes from the discreet value given last week to 460,000-480,000 tonnes for November (24-degree palm oil 300,000-330,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 160,000-180,000 tonnes), is basically unchanged at 650,000-670,000 tonnes for December (24-degree palm oil 500,000-520,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000-170,000 tonnes), and unchanged at 410,000-430,000 tonnes for January, 2019 (24-degree palm oil 280,000-300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000 tonnes). (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated upon latest shipment and violation in shipment).
