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Soybean and Soybean Meal Stocks and Amounts in Contracts Weekly (Week 49, 2018)

2018-12-11 www.cofeed.com

      Soybean: Soybean stock continues to drop this week, for the unloaded volume is relatively small in oil mills in early December. This week (as of Dec. 7th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 5,710,700 tonnes, down 388,300 tonnes by 6.37% from 6,099,000 tonnes yet up by 29.86% from 4,397,500 tonnes of the same period last year. But it remains unclear whether soybean import tariff will be restored to 3% from current 28%. And if it is not restored, Chinese buyers will be less possible to return to US soybean under relatively large crush loss.


      

      Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

      Soybean meal: Soybean meal stock keeps declining this week under a reduced output amid operation drops in domestic oil mills, but the deals clinched are fewer when buyers are waiting on the sidelines since domestic soybean meal price has declined on the back of meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. In addition, there is limited for inventory declines as downstream companies are slow in taking delivery. This week (as of Dec. 7th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills totals 937,400 tonnes, down 5,600 tonnes by 0.59% from 943,000 tonnes last week, yet up by 28.67% from 728,500 tonnes of the same period last year. Operation rate will continue dropping in oil mills next, but downstream buyers still remain cautious due to weak performance in futures market and uncertainties in the US-China trade relationship. Therefore,soybean meal will see no big changes in stock next week. 


      

      Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

      Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills increase slightly. This week (as of Dec. 7th), contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,867,400 tonnes unfinished, up 82,500 tonnes by 2.17% from 3,784,900 tonnes last week, yet down substantially by 41.64% from 6,627,600 tonnes of the same period last year.


      

      Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years