I．National stocks
This week (as of Dec. 21st), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 423,200 tonnes, down 20,000 tonnes by 4.5% from 443,200 tonnes last week, yet up 9,900 tonnes by 2.4% from 413,300 tonnes month-on-month, and down 170,500 tonnes by 28.7% from 593,700 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 88,700 tonnes, down 5,000 tonnes by 5.9% from 83,700 tonnes last week.
The stocks of edible palm oil have dropped further this week, but its price spread with palm oil has continued to narrow down by 42 yuan to 913 yuan/tonne until this Friday from 955 yuan/tonne last week and down drastically by 270 yuan from a high point of 1,183 yuan/tonne on November 27th. The overall palm oil market has been extending its downturn in that buyers have remained cautious in face of limited blend demand as the weather gets cool. In addition, after an intensive arrival of 6-8 vessels of palm oil at Southern ports, the harbors are blocked in by limited berths; thus, it is difficult to unload the cargoes. Consequently, the overall stock has reversed its growth to decline, but it may be more likely to continue to rise later with the continuous unloading of the cargoes.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
There are few berths available for intensive arrivals of palm oil vessels at Southern ports, so the import volume is accordingly downsized by 50,000 tonnes to 600,000-620,000 tonnes for December (24-degree palm oil 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000-170,000 tonnes). And it is unchanged from the discreet given last week at 410,000-430,000 tonnes for January (24-degree 280,000-300,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000 tonnes), and 430,000 tonnes for February (24-degree 300,000 tonnes and palm oil 130,000 tonnes). (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated upon latest shipment and violation in shipment).
