Soybean: Soybean stock has declined fractionally this week in spite of small pickups in operation rate. This week (as of Dec. 21st), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 5,651,700 tonnes, down 82,000 tonnes by 1.43% from 5,733,700 tonnes, yet up by 27.03% from 4,448,800 tonnes of the same period last year. On account of few arrivals of soybeans at port from December to February, soybean stock is forecast to go down step by step later.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Soybean stateside traded down further this week amid growing expectations for soybean production upon improved weather conditions in South America. And meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange posted choppy fluctuations, and soybean meal went weak with fluctuations. As downstream buyers chose to stay on the sidelines, the overall trading volume was not as satisfactory as last week. That is, it is 587,000 tonnes this week, lower than 645,070 tonnes last week. As a result, soybean meal stock has seen a minor rise this week. Specifically, soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills totals 950,900 tonnes, up 7,500 tonnes by 0.79% from 943,400 tonnes last week, and up by 8.88% from 873,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean meal stock will post a small increase next week as the operation rate will continue to rally in the coming two weeks.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills show a slight rise this week, for contracts signed on forward basis by Guangdong Cargill have post a boost, which offsets the reduction in other areas. As of Dec. 21st, contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,789,800 tonnes unfinished, up 7,200 tonnes by 0.19% from 3,782,600 tonnes last week, and down substantially by 35.03% from 5,833,800 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
