Today (Dec. 25th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Soybean stateside extended its downward trend overnight, and meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) post narrow fluctuations. Soybean meal stays stable in fluctuation amid some deals at low prices in coastal areas, in spite of an overall low trading volume. Specifically, the price fluctuates steadily by 10-20 yuan to settle at 2,860-2,940 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,910, Shandong 2,870-2,920, Jiangsu 2,870-2,920, Dongguan 2,860-2,930 and Guangxi 2,860-2,910). Meals have pointed to broad declines, for import cost has been reduced by about 100 yuan/tonne after China announced to eliminate its import tariff on alternative meals next year. And China has made plans for US soybean purchases in the near future. While early Brazilian soybeans are now being harvested and will make their debut soon, domestic consumption of soybean meal is sluggish amid the contagious African swine fever (ASF), where soybean meal stock has increased by 1% weekly to 950,000 tonnes. Generally, soybean meal will find it hard to rebound, and short-term market will go weak in fluctuation following its futures and is expected to present modest pickups in the run up to the Spring Festival. Buyers can wait for steady declines to properly buy on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steps down today, of which it is 2,040-2,120 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,060, down 10; Guangdong 2,080, down 30; and Fujian 2,120, down 20). Import tariff on rapeseed meal will be removed to zero from current 5% from January 1st next year. Take the example of CNF 305 USD/tonne today, the price will drop down by 120 yuan/tonne (17.44 USD/tonne) with duty paid. In addition, China’s General Administration of Customs has allowed the import of rapeseed meal from Kazakhstan and India, and Brazil is now harvesting its new soybean and will likely to ship some 2.0 Mln tonnes in January. Meanwhile, China will make its third round of US soybean purchase in the next few days. But on the consumption side, meal demand is still subject to the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF. Suffered from a myriad of bearish factors, rapeseed meal market is predicted to fall back moderately in fluctuation in the short term, and buyers can just stay on the sidelines to replenish properly upon low prices.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal is quoted steadily and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,700-9,800 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,500-10,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,800-10,900 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 76,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 56,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 20,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,230 USD/tonne and 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market has come under pressure from such factors as continued light trading volume amid soft demand and rapid fishing progress in Peru. But the quotation sees few changes now as holders are working hard to reduce their losses. In the near term, fishmeal market will probably stay stable to post some declines.
Cottonseed meal: Domestic meal market turns negative upon an official announcement that the import tariff on such alternative meals as rapeseed meal and cottonseed meal would be removed from 5% to zero from January 1st, 2019. Meals on the DCE fluctuate at a narrow range today. In the spot market, soybean meal spots steadily fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne, and cottonseed meal sheds some 20-50 yuan/tonne due to its unimpressive deals amid dismal demand from aquaculture. But the price declines are just in the minority thanks to its limited supply and the high price of cottonseed. Overall, short-term cottonseed meal may maintain its weak trend with some fluctuations, and buyers can just stay on the sidelines.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
