Today (Dec. 26th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Soybean market stateside was closed last night, and meals fluctuate steadily at a narrow range on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE). Soybean meal spots steadily fluctuate amid small trading volume. Specifically, the price is 2,850-2,920 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down steadily by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,910, Shandong 2,860-2,920, Jiangsu 2,850-2,920, Dongguan 2,850-2,920, and Guangxi 2,850-2,910). Brazil has set down to cut its bumper soybean, whilst China is carrying out its plans for more US soybean imports with an?aggregate of?5.0 Mln tonnes, and has announced the elimination of import tariffs by about 100-120 yuan/tonne on mixed meals from January 1, 2019. Meanwhile, soybean consumption has been sluggish due to the contagious African swine fever (ASF) so that its stock still remains at a high level. Therefore, soybean meal is weak in achieving price rebounds. In the near term, it will go weak in fluctuation following its futures, and hopefully may recover with the start of stockpiling before the Spring Festival. By the way, there is a rumour that several vessels shipped with Canadian soybeans at ports in Jiangsu, Fujian and some other provinces have got a problem in unloading, whilst soybean supply will probably get tighter in January and February. Market participants can watch closely, and buyers can wait for a steady declines to make proper replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stays stable in fluctuation today, of which it is 2,040-2,100 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,040, down 20; Guangdong 2,100, up 20; Fujian 2,100, down 20). On the state side, China has announced to eliminate the import tariffs on alternative meals from next year. On the market side, domestic meals are now in liberal supply. Besides, Brazil has embarked on early soybean harvest and will have it go marketing soon, whilst China has planned to purchase more US soybeans. In the meantime, meal demand is still crippled by the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF. In this context, rapeseed meal will have little rebound potential, but the price may be propped up by concerns over the relationship between China and Canada, especially after a rumor told today that some cargoes boarded with Canadian soybeans had some problems in discharging. Overall, rapeseed meal market will post narrow fluctuations on the back of its futures, and buyers can take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal goes down in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, each down by 100 yuan/tonne. Stocks at port: Huangpu 76,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 56,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 20,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to rise: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,250 USD/tonne and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content, both up by 20 yuan/tonne. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is basically bearish amid heavy stock pressure, for port trading has been weak due to the overall light demand. But the slight rises on the foreign market has to some extent propped up the domestic market. Fishmeal market will probably stay stable to go weak in the short run.
Cottonseed meal: Soybean meal spots decline by 10-20 yuan/tonne amid ongoing inventory increases since its demand is still limited by the contagious ASF, and cottonseed meal also steps down by 30-50 yuan/tonne partially in stagnant trading. But the price decline of cottonseed meal is now restricted by the relatively high cost and small supply of cottonseed. On account of the improved relationship between China and the United States and the elimination of import tariffs on alternative meals by China, short-term cottonseed meal will likely maintain its weak trend in fluctuation, and buyers can briefly stay on the sidelines.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
