Today (Dec. 28th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean extended its loss overnight, and meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) also inch lower today. Soybean meal spots follow to slip to attract few deals. The price is 2,810-2,880 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-30 yuan/tonne from yesterday. (Tianjin 2,850, Shandong 2,830-2,840, Jiangsu 2,830-2,880, Dongguan 2,810-2,880, and Guangxi 2,830-2,850). While early soybeans, which will hit a new high in production, have been cutting in Brazil, the production of new soybeans will see a recovery in Argentina; thus, global soybean will come under pressure for its sizeable supply. China has announced the elimination of import tariffs on mixed meals. But on the other hand, the dampening effect, brought by the rampant African swine fever (ASF), on demand for soybean meal may be more severe than forecast, for soybean meal stock still remains at a high level amid light demand. Therefore, short-term market will still edge down with some fluctuations. By the way, participants can watch closely at the trade trend since it was reported that a U.S. delegation would travel to Beijing to hold trade talks with Chinese officials in the week of January 7th. If trade conflicts are settled smoothly, later market may still be inactive; but if not, it will hopefully have room to run higher. Buyers can go on to wait on the sidelines to see if there is any demand to replenish upon low prices.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steadily goes down, of which it is 2,010-2,070 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,020, down 20; Guangdong 2,050, down 30; and Fujain 2,070, down 20). Brazilian soybeans will go above the all-time record. Besides, a U.S. delegation would travel to Beijing to hold trade talks with Chinese officials in earlier January. And the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF have been whittling down the demand for meals. Rapeseed meal market is thereby dragged down. But the downward space is now limited by the start of stockpiles before the festival in January. Overall, the market will follow its futures to post narrow fluctuations to decline slightly in the short run, and buyers can keep on waiting for steady declines to make proper replenishment.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 55,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to rise: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,250 USD/tonne and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market turns bearish upon the overall soft demand and light delivery at port, as well as the demand for arbitrage by some holders toward the end of the year. But some holders have showed strong willingness to reduce their losses in view of a stable foreign market and the price inversion both at home and abroad. Fishmeal market will post little volatility in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on the DCE steps down further today. In the spot market, soybean meal drops by 10-30 yuan/tonne amid its growing inventories and crippled demand as the ASF continues spreading, and cottonseed meal market is still hindered by its sluggish shipment. But the downward space has been limited thanks to the relatively high price and slow supply of cottonseed. On the state side, a U.S. delegation will travel to Beijing to hold trade talks with Chinese officials in the week of January 7th, and China has announced previously the elimination of import tariffs on mixed meals from next year. Overall, short-term cottonseed meal market will likely maintain its weak trend in fluctuation, and buyers can briefly stay on the sidelines.
(USD $1=CNY 6.86)
