Today (Dec. 29th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean pointed to a big rally in overnight trading upon the market’s expectation that China would take a further step in oilseed purchase. And today, soybean meal spots rise steadily to attract few deals. Specifically, the price goes up steadily by 10-20 yuan/tonne to 2,820-2,900 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,850, Shandong 2,830-2,860, Jiangsu 2,830-2,900, Dongguan 2,850-2,920, and Guangxi 2,830-2,860). Soybean meal posts a small price rebound today, for its shipment among oil mills may get improved to some extent with the start of stockpiles in January in the run up to the Spring Festival. However, global soybean has been under pressure for its sizeable supply. In the meantime, China and the US have made specific arrangements for trade talks in January amid upbeat?forecasts. In addition, soybean crush volume has risen back to a very high level of 1.86 Mln tonnes in oil mills, while the stock of soybean meal remains stubbornly high as its demand is being crippled by the rampant African swine fever (ASF). On the whole, soybean meal market will find little space for rebounds in the near term, and buyers are suggested to make some replenishment upon low price if out of stock and remain cautious in forcing up the price.
Imported rapeseed meal: Prices for imported rapeseed meal edge up today, of which it is 2,030-2,070 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10-20 yuan/tonne partially. (Guangxi 2,030, up 10; Guangdong 2,070, up 20; and Fujian 2,070, stable). While the inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased by 13% to 26,000 tonnes this week, the stockpiles in the run up to the festival will gradually get started in January; hence, rapeseed meal has managed to reverse its price declines. But on the other hand, Brazilian soybeans will go above the all-time record. And the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF have been whittling down the demand for meals. Rapeseed meal market is thereby almost unable to find upward potential. Overall, the market will post narrow fluctuations on the back of the futures in the short term, and buyers are suggested to make some replenishment upon low price if out of stock and be prudent in driving up the price.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 55,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to rise: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,250 USD/tonne and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market turns bearish upon the overall soft demand and heavy stock pressure at port, as well as the demand for arbitrage by some holders toward the end of the year. But some holders have showed strong willingness to reduce their losses in view of a stable foreign market and the price inversion both at home and abroad. Fishmeal market will post little volatility in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: The price for cottonseed meal posts a partial decline of 50 yuan/tonne as the market is still hindered by its sluggish shipment. Added to this, the growing inventory of soybean meal amid the rampant ASF is also bearish to the market. But the downward space has been limited thanks to the relatively high price and slow supply of cottonseed, in addition to the price rise of soybean meal spots by 10-20 yuan/tonne today. On the state side, a U.S. delegation will travel to Beijing to hold trade talks with Chinese officials on the week of January 7th, and China has announced previously the elimination of import tariffs on mixed meals from next year. Overall, short-term cottonseed meal market will likely maintain its weak trend in fluctuation, and buyers can briefly take hand-to-mouth buying.
(USD $1=CNY 6.88)
