I．National stocks
This week (as of Dec. 28th), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports totals 475,100 tonnes, up 51,900 tonnes by 12.3% from 423,200 tonnes last week and up 55,500 tonnes by 13.2% from 419,600 tonnes month-on-month, yet down 127,100 tonnes by 21.1% from 602,200 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 87,300 tonnes, down 1,400 tonnes by 1.6% from 88,700 tonnes last week.
The stock of edible palm oil has reversed the decline to recover this week. The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil has settled at 943 yuan/tonne as of this Friday, an increment of 31 yuan/tonne from 913 yuan/tonne last week, yet far below the high level of 1,183 yuan/tonne by 243 yuan/tonne on November 27. Furthermore, its overall demand is not satisfactory as its blend demand has posted a sharp decline amid low temperatures. In addition, palm oil, one of the bulk oils, ought to take up a certain proportion in edible blend oil, but its blend demand is now restricted by its unsatisfactory reputation, for packing oil factories have been more cautious in adding palm oil after the new GB (national standard) for vegetable oil made it mandatory to mark all proportion of ingredients on packing oil from December 21st, 2018. And the above factors have jointly dragged down palm oil consumption. Besides, palm oil arrivals at port will be obviously quicker than its consumption with its intensive arrivals at ports of South, East and North China. Consequently, palm oil stock will probably continue rising later.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the import volume levels of the discreet given last week at 600,000-620,000 tonnes for December (24-degree palm oil 450,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000-170,000 tonnes), and it goes higher by 50,000 tonnes to 480,000 tonnes for January (24-degree 350,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 130,000 tonnes), and holds the line of 430,000 tonnes for February (24-degree 300,000 tonnes and palm oil 130,000 tonnes). (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated upon latest shipment and violation in shipment).
