Soybean: Soybean stock has showed a slight increase due to its relatively large arrivals at port this week and its shipments to factories after being discharged in the previous stages, in spite of some pickups in operation rate. This week (as of Dec. 28th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 5,683,300 tonnes, an increment of 31,600 tonnes by 0.56% from 5,651,700 tonnes and by 27.91% from 4,443,100 tonnes of the same period last year. Its arrivals will be not significant in January and February, and its port stock will likely decline further later if the trade war hovers.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: The trading volume of soybean meal goes further lower than last week, for mid-and-downstream companies have remained cautious in purchasing in view of the downward trend of its price. Specifically, the volume traded is 300,500 tonnes this week, far below 587,000 tonnes last week. Moreover, the crush volume has seen a further growth to 1.86 Mln tonnes in oil mills. Soybean meal stock is thus markedly increased. As of December 28th, soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills totals 1,131,600 tonnes, up 180,700 tonnes by 19.00% from 950,900 tonnes last week and by 26.91% from 891,600 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean meal stock will probably inch higher next week as the operation rate will continue to rally in the coming two weeks.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills reduce drastically this week amid the modest trading volume. As of Dec. 28th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,126,400 tonnes unfinished, a big drop of 663,400 tonnes by 17.50% from 3,789,800 tonnes last week and by 42.72% from 5,458,650 tonnes of the same period last year.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
