Today (Jan. 3rd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed higher overnight as the production growth of Brazilian soybeans failed to meet the expectation. Today, meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) extend gains in a flat trend, and soybean meal spots stay stable to rise and attract some deals at low prices, but the overall trading volume is smaller than yesterday. The price goes up steadily by 10-20 yuan/tonne to 2,830-2,940 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,860, Shandong 2,830-2,860, Jiangsu 2,830-2,920, Dongguan 2,840-2,940, and Guangxi 2,820-2,850). Currently, Brazilian soybean production, failed to meet the forecast though it is, will still reach a record high, and Argentine new soybean will also recover its output; hence, global soybean supply will be under pressure. And China has previously eliminated its import tariffs on mixed meals. And by itself, soybean meal is now in slack demand due to the contagious African swine fever (ASF) and the off-season aquaculture, and its stock has increased by 19% to 1.13 Mln tonnes in coastal areas as the crush volume has risen back to a very high level of 1.86 Mln tonnes. Therefore, the price gain of soybean meal is curbed. However, the market are worries that the economic reforms promulgated by China recently ahead of the trade talk on the week of January 7 are insufficient to meet the requirements by the US Presidents Donald Trump. And if so, trade conflicts may be intensified again, and meal price will thus get a boost. Due to such uncertainty, buyers choose to make modest replenishment on the dips on worries of short positions amid the upward trend, so the trading volume was strong yesterday and it was signed in the form of spot contracts. Short-term soybean meal price fluctuate to post modest rebound upon the US soybean bounce and better domestic demand, buyers are suggested to replenish properly on the dips and not to force up the price excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 75,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 55,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to rise: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,250 USD/tonne and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Fishmeal stock pressure remains well in place amid its overall light demand, despite the somewhat improved trading state in the run up to the Spring Festival. In addition, holders face the demand for arbitrage toward the end of the year. Therefore, domestic fishmeal market is weighed on. But some holders have showed strong willingness to reduce their losses in view of the price inversion both at home and abroad. Fishmeal market will mainly stay stable to decline slightly in the short term.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stay stable to edge higher, of which it is 2,050-2,160 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,050, up 10; Guangdong 2,080, stable; and Fujian 2,160, up 20). Two Guangdong mills have had some problem in unloading their rapeseed amid strained tensions between China and Canada so that mills have begun to set delivery limitations with strong willingness to lift the price. As a result, rapeseed meal price continues to go up. However, Brazilian soybean will go marketing soon with its bumper harvests. Besides, while domestic meal is still in liberal supply, soybean crush volume will rise back to around 1.87 Mln tonnes in the coming two weeks. Worse still, meal demand is being crippled by the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF. Hence, the price hike of rapeseed meal is curbed. By the way, buyers can make proper replenishment on the dips.
Cottonseed meal: The prices of cottonseed meal today partially go up 30-50 yuan/tonne under support of the continuing rise of meals on the DCE and cottonseed, and a steady rise of soybean meal spots by 10-20 yuan/tonne, as well as its own small supply. But end demand is still reeling from the spread of ASF. Besides, China has announced previously the elimination of import tariffs on mixed meals and the meeting between China and the United States will be hold on Jan. 7th. Downstream companies thereby take a cautious tactic in purchasing amid slow new orders, so it's hard for the pick-up of cottonseed meal prices. Buyers had better make proper replenishment upon low prices, and maintain cautious if chasing high bids.
(USD $1=CNY 6.87)
