Today (Jan. 4th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean extended its gains last night, and meals also prolong upward trends on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) today. Domestic soybean meal spots post steady rises to attract some deals at low prices, but the today trading volume remains light. The price goes up by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,840-2,940 yuan/tonne (Tianjin 2,870, Shandong 2,840-2,870, Jiangsu 2,840-2,920, Dongguan 2,860-2,940, and Guangxi 2,840-2,870). US soybean is buoyed to present sustained rebounds by dry weather in Brazil and positive sentiment toward the US-China talks. In addition, soybean meal has fallen to the territory of psychological prices of downstream buyers, whilst feed companies have embarked on stockpiling before the Spring Festival; thus, the transaction has hit 500,000 tonnes within two days after the New Year’s holiday. And short-term soybean meal is triggered whereby to post modest rebounds with some fluctuations. But global soybean supply has come under pressure from the inevitable bumper harvests in Brazil, production recovery in Argentina and high inventories of US soybeans waiting to be moved. Besides, while China has already eliminated its import tariffs on mixed meals, which will help increase their imports, meal demand is still limping under the rampant African swine fever (ASF). And several oil mills have been hastening the delivery under huge soybean meal stock pressure. Therefore, the medium trend of soybean meal remains somewhat gloomy. By the way, the market sentiment is optimistic over the trade talks between China and the United States on January 7 and 8 in Beijing. Buyers are suggested not to force up the price too hard provisionally.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it is 2,070-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,070, up 20; Guangdong 2,130, up 50; and Fujian 2,190, up 30). Two mills in Guangdong have encountered a problem in unloading their rapeseed amid the relation tensions between China and Canada, one of which has managed to discharge the cargo, but is still unable to start processing; hence, the operation rate for rapeseed is lowered down. Nonetheless, there will be intensive arrivals of alternative meals this month (an estimate of 100,000 tonnes of granulated meal and 200,000 tonnes of sunflower meal). And currently there are some 40,000 tonnes of granulated meal at Guangdong port, and global soybean supply has also been under pressure. Besides, the market sentiment is optimistic over trade talks between China and the United States on January 7 and 8 in Beijing. Moreover, meal demand has been crippling by the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF. The above factors have jointed to limit the price rise of rapeseed meal. There being uncertainties, buyers are not suggested to force up the price excessively.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 73,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 55,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to rise: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,250 USD/tonne and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. Port stock has been bearing heavy pressure from light demand and slow shipment. In addition, holders face the demand for arbitrage toward the end of the year. Therefore, domestic fishmeal market is dragged down. But the market is relatively stable due to a firm foreign market and the price inversion both at home and abroad. In the near term, fishmeal market will stay stable with some declines.
Cottonseed meal: The prices of cottonseed meal today partially go up 20-50 yuan/tonne under support of the continuing rise of cottonseed, and a steady rise of soybean meal spots by 10-20 yuan/tonne, as well as its own low stock. But end demand is still reeling from the spread of ASF. Besides, China has announced previously the elimination of import tariffs on mixed meals and the trade talks between China and the United States will be held on Jan. 7-8th in Beijing. Downstream companies thereby take a cautious tactic in purchasing amid slow delivery, so it's hard for the pick-up of cottonseed meal prices. Buyers had better make proper replenishment upon low prices, and not chase bids high too far.
(USD $1=CNY 6.86)
