Today (Jan. 9th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures ended down on Tuesday in a technical setback. Trade talks between Beijing and Washington has entered a third day on Wednesday amid the U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweet that “talks with China are going on well”, and traders have adopted the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals, so meals extend losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots post price declines in tepid trading, in spite of some replenishment before the festival at low prices. The price goes lower by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,850-2,940 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,880, Shandong 2,850-2,860, Jiangsu 2,830-2,960, Dongguan 2,840-2,960, and Guangxi 2,840-2,910). The market bodes well for the outcome of trade talks amid signs of progress on purchases of U.S. farm and energy commodities like soybean, corn and DDGS. But the African swine fever (ASF) is still cutting down hog replenishment. Soybean meal is thus forced to give up its gains to decline slightly. However, Brazil has reduced its forecast on soybean production after early-cut crops posted unsatisfactory performance, whilst domestic stockpiles before the Spring Festival have been underway, for which shipment has got improved in Shandong and some other northern regions. In this case, there may be little space for price declines. Buyers already rebuilding stocks are suggested to wait for the guidance of the meeting outcome and to make proper replenishment once the price is dragged down by the smooth talks.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steadily edges up today, of which it is 2,140-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,140, up 10; Guangdong 2,190, stable; and Fujian 2,230). Several oil mills have run into problems in unloading their rapeseed amid strained relationships between China and Canada, including two Guangdong mills as mentioned before, two in Guangxi and one in Jiangsu, so that oil mills have showed strong willingness to lift the price under reducing rapeseed crush this week; hence, rapeseed meal is boosted to post continuous price rises. But the market are optimistic about the outcome of trade talks which have entered a third day today between Beijing and Washington amid the U.S. President Donald Trump’s tweet that “talks with China are going on well”. And domestic meal market will fall bearish once any deal is achieved. In addition, meal demand is still subject to the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF. Thus, there is limited space for price rises. Buyers can wait for the guidance from the outcome of trade talks today.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 72,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 54,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keep steady to rise: Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,250 USD/tonne and 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted at 1,510 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is 1,620 USD/tonne. The overall demand for fishmeal is so slack that holder have been under pressure in sales. But port shipment has improved slightly under the stockpiling before the Spring Festival, making port stock go down fractionally. But the quotation is relatively stable due to a firm foreign market and the price inversion both at home and abroad, as well as some holders’ effort in cutting their losses. In the near term, fishmeal market will probably stay stable to edge down.
Cottonseed meal: Prices of low-end cottonseed meal today go up 50 yuan/tonne due to the demand for stockpiling before holiday amid strong cottonseed prices and low cottonseed meal output. However, soybean meals today decline further by 10-20 yuan/tonne and the demand is limited for ASF continues to spread in China. Moreover, US-China trade talks were extended until Wednesday and Trump tweeted that talks with China were going very well. If some agreements are reached, the China's meals market will turn negative. So with the buyer's previous replenishment upon low prices and slower purchase pace, the upward potential for cottonseed meal is curbed. Buyers should pay attention to the result of the talks.
(USD $1=CNY 6.84)
