Today (Jan. 10th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed higher yesterday, but meals trim their gains after higher opens and fluctuate to decline fractionally on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean meal spots remain steady to fall in light trading, but there is some replenishment before the festival at low prices. The price goes down by 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday to settle at 2,830-2,930 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,870, Shandong 2,830-2,860, Jiangsu 2,830-2,900, Dongguan 2,840-2,930, and Guangxi 2,840-2,900). This round of trade talks between China and the United States has stricken no deal, but has sent optimistic news that there will be follow-up talks between higher levels later this month. In addition, China has made a commitment to purchase a mass of US farm commodities including corn, DDGS and wheat. While at this moment, inventories of soybean meal remain stubbornly high amid dismal demand since hog replenishment has been dampened by the contagious African swine fever (ASF). The stock has exactly increased by 9% weekly to 1.23 Mln tonnes in coastal areas, forcing some oil mills to halt for their swelling stocks. Soybean meal price is thus forced to fluctuate with slight declines by bearish fundamentals, but the downward space may be limited by production cut of Brazilian soybean under dry weather, current strong trend of US soybean and ongoing stockpiling before the Spring Festival. Buyers can wait for a steady market to make appropriate replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stays stable to decline fractionally, of which it is 2,120-2,210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down steadily by 20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,120, down 20; Guangdong 2,190, stable; and Fujian 2,230). The price of soybean meal has been stepping down as its stock has remained high under the slack aquaculture and the rampant ASF. Besides, China has made a commitment to purchase more US farm products and there will be follow-up talks at higher levels between China and the United States later this month, although no deal has been reached in trade talks which have completed yesterday. It is worth mentioning that China has already purchase a cargo of US DDGS this week. So the above negative factors have joined forces to drag down rapeseed meal price to post small declines. But several cargoes of imported rapeseed have encountered some problems in unloading amid strained relations between China and Canada. And oil mills has continued to lower down their crush volume on worries of later arrivals of rapeseed. Therefore, there is limited room for rapeseed meal price to go downside. In the short term, the market will follow its futures to fluctuate at a narrow range, and buyers can wait for steady declines to replenish properly.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 72,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 54,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 19,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market post losses: the quotation goes down by 40 USD/tonne to 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and by 20 USD/tonne to 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted lower by 100 USD/tonne to 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content is lower by 70 USD/tonne to 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market has fallen bearish since holders have been under pressure on sales amid overall light demand, in addition to the end of new fishing season in Peru and the sliding foreign market. But its port stock has slipped a bit under improved shipment by the stockpiling before the Spring Festival. In the near term, fishmeal market will probably stay stable to edge down.
Cottonseed meal: Some cottonseed meal prices today go up 50 yuan/tonne due to the demand for stockpiling before holiday amid strong cottonseed prices and low cottonseed meal output. However, today meals on DCE go lower with fluctuations, soybean meals decline by 10-20 yuan/tonne and the demand is limited for ASF continues to spread in China. Moreover, although after a three-day round of trade talks, there were no agreements between China and US and will be a higher-level negotiation at the end of this month, China has pledged to buy a substantial amount of US agricultural goods. So the China's meals market will turn negative and the upward potential for cottonseed meal is curbed amid the decline of some prices. Short-term cottonseed meals will move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.80)
