Today (Jan. 11th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: U.S. soybean reversed its gains yesterday due to a lack of demand from China and Brazil’s official estimate of 118.8 million tonnes?for its soybean production, above the forecast of 116-117 million tonnes by the market. Meals also extend losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and soybean meal spots fall in softer trading in coastal areas. Specifically, the price goes down by 20-50 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,780-2,880 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,840, Shandong 2,780-2,840, Jiangsu 2,790-2,880, Dongguan 2,800-2,850, and Guangxi 2,800-2,820). Trade talks completed this week have sent optimistic news that there will be follow-up discussions between higher levels later this month. On the other side, the contagious African swine fever (ASF) has been casting down hog replenishment. And global soybean has been under heavy supply pressure, with South American soybean substantially going marketing soon. Soybean meal price is thus weighed down to slide since the market does not bode well for the medium and long term trend. Nevertheless, the market is still in the speculation for dry weather in Brazil. Meanwhile, stockpiling before the Spring Festival is still underway, and shipment has been better among oil mills in Shandong and some other northern regions, with some buyers even queuing in line to take delivery. Therefore, there is little room for soybean meal to go down further in the short term. Buyers can just wait to make proper replenishment after steady price falls.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steps down today, of which it is 2,100-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,100, down 20; Guangdong 2,160, down 30; and Fujian 2,190, down 30). Soybean meal stock has been stubbornly high, for its demand is curbed by the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF. Moreover, mixed meal arrivals have been huge at Guangdong port after the import tariff was exempted. Therefore, rapeseed meal has been in light trading amid reduced demand. And rapeseed meal market is further dragged down by soybean meal price which has come under pressure from huge global soybean supply and growing hopes that China and the U.S. will manage to strike a deal. But oil mills have encountered some problems in unloading imported rapeseed cargoes or are not allowed to process amid strained relations between China and Canada so that some of them have already powered off their machines. Due to reduced rapeseed crush recently, rapeseed meal will find little room for downside, and may follow its futures to fluctuate at a narrow range in the near term. Buyers can briefly wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 71,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 53,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Pressure has come upon Peruvian traders with the completion of new fishing season so that the quotation has turned slightly loose on the foreign market. In the meantime, domestic demand for fishmeal has been slack, under which holders have come under pressure in sale and become more willing to cleat their stock. But the overall port shipment has been improved with the stockpiling before the Spring Festival. In addition, the quotation remains briefly stable as there are still signs of price inversion both at home and abroad. So domestic fishmeal market is propped up. In the near term, fishmeal market will probably keep steady.
Cottonseed meal: Today meals on DCE continue to go lower, soybean meals spots decline by 20-40 yuan/tonne and the demand is limited for ASF continues to spread in China. Moreover, after a three-day round of trade talks, there were no agreements between China and US and will be a higher-level negotiation at the end of this month, but China has pledged to buy a substantial amount of US agricultural goods. So the China's meals market will turn negative and the delivery pace of cottonseed meal become slower with some prices falling 20-50 yuan/tonne. However, the price decline is curbed by the stockpiling before holiday, high cottonseed prices and low cottonseed meal output. Short-term cottonseed meals will move in narrow range and the high-end products are still likely to fall.
(USD $1=CNY 6.75)
