Today (Jan. 14th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean inched higher last Friday. But meal futures fall sharply upon lower opens on the Dalian Commodity Exchange amid carry trade of buying oils and selling meals after the African swine fever (ASF) occurred on a large-scale farm with nearly 70,000 live pigs in Jiangsu Province, and domestic soybean meal spots follow to slip in light trading. Specifically, the price goes down by 40-60 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,720-2,820 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,780, Shandong 2,740-2,800, Jiangsu 2,740-2,830, Dongguan 2,750-2,820, and Guangxi 2,750-2,800). Brazilian soybean will post a lower-than-forecast production due to a dry spell in December, but the production reduction turns out to be small. In addition, US soybean is in huge inventories. As a result, global soybean is under high supply pressure. Moreover, the ASF is still wreaking havoc, with current situation in some areas more severe than reported. Therefore, soybean meal price is forced to sink by its bearish fundamentals. But its stock has got a relief from the stockpiling before the Spring Festival underway, and there are still buyers waiting in line for goods in Shandong and some other North regions. Besides, several cargoes of rapeseed and soybean from Canada have been disturbed when being unloaded due to strained tensions between China and Canada, which may help limit the price declines of soybean meal. Buyers can just wait for a steady fall to make appropriate replenishment.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal drops today, of which it is 2,060-2,180 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 40-50 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,060, down 40; Guangdong 2,120, down 40; and Fujian 2,180, down 30). Meal demand has been crippled by the off-season aquaculture and the rampant ASF, coupled by the elimination of import tariffs on mixed meals. Besides, there may be some shocks from imports of US DDGS and pork. Rapeseed meal is thus dragged down. But due to tensions between China and Canada, rapeseed is still not allowed to be processed though having been unloaded so that its crush volume has reduced to 60,000 tonnes last week and rapeseed meal stock has dwindled by 11% weekly to 19,000 tonnes in coastal areas, so there will be little room for price declines. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 70,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 53,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 18,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Peruvian traders are under pressure with the completion of new fishing season so that the quotation has turned loose a bit on the foreign market. Meanwhile, port stock has been piling up amid unsatisfactory shipment under light demand. And some holders have liquidation demand as the year draws near. Therefore, domestic fishmeal market gets curbed. But as there are still signs of price inversion both at home and abroad. And the quotation remains briefly stable as holders are still trying hard to cut losses and port stock has got a relief from the stockpiling before the Spring Festival. All in all, short-term fishmeal market will probably keep steady.
Cottonseed meal: Meals on DCE today slump as ASF hits a large pig farm in Jiangsu province, with which soybean meal spots also see a decline of 40-60 yuan/tonne. And China's meals market is negative due to the optimistic news about US-China talks and a higher-level negotiation at the end of this month. Moreover, cottonseed meals delivery is slow and its market will turn negative. However, the prices haven't declined as the cottonseed oil mills is under low operation rate due to environmental protection and bad market, and have a strong willingness for higher offers due to high processing cost amid the ongoing stockpiling before holiday. Short-term cottonseed meal will move in narrow range and the prices of the high-end may fall back.
(USD $1=CNY 6.76)
