Today (Jan. 14th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price keeps steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean levels off at 4,030 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is priced steadily at 3,220 yuan/tonne and the GM is not offered. Soybean prices are buoyed by deteriorating crop outlooks in Brazil. But there is no sign of US soybean purchase by China and no strong trading volume on current distribution market in China, so that domestic import soybean market is still curbed. Generally speaking, imported soybean price will likely stay stable with slight declines in distribution market recently.
Cottonseed: The cottonseed market turns negative due to the decreased demand for oil mills are cautious in purchasing and inactive in powering on their machines amid poor performance of cotton by-products. Today prices steadily decline 0.04 yuan/kg. However, China's cottonseed market is supported by the low trading of cotton ginning plants in view of less and less cottonseed supply and its current low prices as well as traffic tensions and expensive freight. Cottonseed prices thus won't face a drastic decline and in the short run will move in narrow range.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean edged up last Friday due to technical buying and concerns over weather conditions in South America. And today soybean meal posts modest gains and palm oil shows painstaking rise on the Dalian Commodity Exchange amid active carry trade of buying oils and selling meals after the African swine fever (ASF) occurred on a large-scale farm with nearly 70,000 live pigs in Jiangsu Province. On the spot market, soybean oil goes higher and palm oil also partially edges up with some purchases at low prices, but few for those with big price rises. Soybean crush has declined drastically to 1.47 Mln tonnes last week due to swelling soybean meal inventories, whilst packing oil stockpiling is underway so that soybean oil stock has been dropping to around 1.52 Mln tonnes. Therefore, short-term oil market will have few callbacks as oil mills are supporting the prices. But influenced by global soybean stock pressure, oil market will find limited space for price rises, and will probably go strong in fluctuation before the completion of stockpiling before the Spring Festival. And the trend before the festival will depend largely on trade talks at higher levels between China and the United States. Buyers are suggested not to force up the price and make proper replenishment on the dips.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is broadly priced higher by 10-50 yuan/tonne to 5,450-5,550 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas. (Tianjin 5,450-5,460, Rizhao 5,450, Zhangjiagang 5,550, and Guangzhou 5,500-5,520).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,480-4,550 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a partial rise of 10 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,530-4,540, up 10; Rizhao 4,530, unchanged; Zhangjiagang 4,550, unchanged; Guangzhou 4,480; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil goes down today, of which it is 6140-6380 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 30-50 yuan/tonne. (Fujian not offered; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 6,350, stable). Cargo purchase for crude rapeseed oil has been on the rise due to its improved margins recently so that rapeseed oil inventory has increased by 10% to 436,000 tonnes in East China last week. Besides, global soybean is under high supply pressure. Therefore, rapeseed oil market is dragged down. But due to tensions between China and Canada, rapeseed is still not allowed to be processed though having been unloaded so that its crush volume has reduced to 60,000 tonnes last week and rapeseed oil stock has dwindled by 13% weekly to 109,000 tonnes in South China, so there will be little room for price declines. Buyers can just wait for steady falls to make proper replenishment.
Cottonseed oil: For the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals, oils on DCE today experience a mild rise while soybean oil spots go up 20-50 yuan/tonne. And cottonseed oil prices partially go up 50 yuan/tonne due to oil mills' mindset to hold onto goods as the stockpiling before holiday is still underway, and prices of cottonseed oil hit a low of recent years amid limited output. However, China's oils market is negative for there will be a higher-level negotiation at the end of this month and China has pledged to buy a substantial amount of US agricultural goods. Besides, the cottonseed oil turnover is not much and its upward potential is curbed. Short-term prices will move in narrow range and buyer had better make proper replenishment upon lower prices, and maintain cautious if chasing high.
(USD $1=CNY 6.76)
