Soybean: Soybean stock has fallen this week upon its small volume arriving at port this week, in spite of another slump in operation rate. This week (as of Jan. 11th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 5,787,700 tonnes, down 105,800 tonnes by 1.79% from 5,893,500 tonnes, yet up by 25.05% from 4,628,000 tonnes of the same period last year. Port soybean stock is forecast to go down gradually in the first quarter due to its low-key arrivals in January to March, 2019.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: The inventories of soybean meal have declined markedly for its production drawdown after soybean crush dropped sharply to a low level of 1.47 Mln tonnes and its improved shipment in strong trading with a daily volume of 160,000 tonnes in recent two weeks. As of Jan. 11th, soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills has amounted to 1,007,600 tonnes, down 223,700 tonnes by 18.16% from 1,231,300 tonnes last week, yet up by 13.14% from 890,500 tonnes of the same period last year. As the operation rate is yet to recover next week, in addition to the replenishment before the Spring Festival, soybean meal stock will likely continue falling next week.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills has declined slightly this week. On the week as of Jan. 11th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,445,500 tonnes unfinished, down 44,600 tonnes by 1.27% from 3,490,100 tonnes last week and sharply by 43.42% from 6,090,200 tonnes of the same period last year. Customers remain cautious in buying upon forward basis after suffering heavy losses from such contracts in 2018.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
