I．National stocks
This week (as of Jan. 11th), edible palm oil stock at domestic ports has amounted to 516,200 tonnes, an increment of 3,100 tonnes by 0.6% from 513,100 tonnes last week and of 73,000 tonnes by 16.5% from 443,200 tonnes month-on-month, yet down 123,000 tonnes by 19.2% from 639,200 tonnes year-on-year. Meanwhile, industrial palm oil stock at main domestic ports totals 81,400 tonnes, down 1,800 tonnes by 2.2% from 83,200 tonnes last week.
The inventory of edible palm oil has continued to grow this week. For one thing, the spread between palm oil and soybean oil has been enlarged by another 20 yuan/tonne from 965 yuan/tonne last week to 985 yuan/tonne as of this Friday, though still 198 yuan/tonne below 1,183 yuan/tonne on November 27th, 2018. For another, its consumption has been restrained by its sharp drop in blending amount entering winter and its low reputation as blending oil since packing oil factories have been more cautious in adding palm oil after being required to mark all proportion of ingredients on packing oil. The whole palm oil market still remains tepid when most buyers prefer to choose soybean oil, with palm oil traded only 1,100 tonnes while soybean oil 191,200 tonnes this week. Moreover, there is only just over 10 days left for packing oil stockpiling going into the middle of January. As the market has presented few improvements and there are several cargoes waiting to be unloaded, palm oil stock will probably further pile up this month.
Fig.: China's palm oil stocks in recent years
II. Goods Arrivals
According to the latest statistics by Cofeed, the import volume is raised by 70,000 tonnes from the estimate given last week to settle at 550,000-600,000 tonnes for January (24-degree palm oil 400,000-420,000 tonnes and industrial palm oil 150,000-180,000 tonnes), and it remains basically unchanged at 430,000 tonnes for February (24-degree 300,000 tonnes and palm oil 130,000 tonnes). (Shipping schedule may change in accordance with the market, so information will be updated upon latest shipment and violation in shipment).
