Today (Jan. 15th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean slipped overnight, and meal futures extend their losses to hover near the closing price in the previous sessions on the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Soybean meal spots hold steady with slight declines to attract some deals at low prices. The price goes down steadily by 10-20 yuan/tonne to 2710-2810 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,780, Shandong 2,740-2,780, Jiangsu 2,710-2,810, Dongguan 2,750-2,810, and Guangxi 2,780-2,800). Global soybean supply has come under pressure since lower-than-forecast Brazilian soybean production will still remain large and US soybean still has a huge inventory. Moreover, African swine fever is still spreading, with some regions said to have covered up the outbreaks, and the decline in hog stocks has been larger than expected. Therefore, soybean meal price is forced to sink by its bearish fundamentals. But the stockpiling before the Spring Festival is underway so that soybean meal stock has shown a significant decline of 18% weekly in coastal areas, and there are still buyers waiting in line for goods in some northern factories. Besides, several cargoes of rapeseed and soybean from Canada have been disturbed when being unloaded due to strained tensions between China and Canada, in addition to few arrivals of soybean from January to March, so there will be limited room for price declines. But the outlook for soybean meal market is not rosy under growing soybean arrivals from April to June and low inventory of live hogs. Buyers with insufficient inventory can try to replenish on the dip in small batch.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal keeps steady to edge up, of which it is 2070-2180 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2070, up 10; Guangdong 2,120, stable; and Fujian 2,180, stable). Rapeseed crush continues falling this week because some oil mills are not allowed to process their Canadian rapeseed amid tensions between China and Canada. As a result, rapeseed meal price is buoyed to buck the trend to inch higher by oil mills’ efforts in supporting the price. But there are also negative impacts, ranging from off-season aquaculture and bigger-than-anticipated drops in live pig amount under ASF, to large volume of mixed meals arriving at Guangdong port and heavy pressure in global soybean supply. In addition, China and the US have been preparing for high-level talks later this month. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will be weak to go upward and may fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can just take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 70,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Port inventory of fishmeal has been piling up amid light demand, and some holders have been preparing for liquidation; thus, fishmeal market is choked. But as there are still signs of price inversion both at home and abroad, and port stock will get a relief from the stockpiling before the Spring Festival. In the coexistence of the bull and the bear, fishemal market will go steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today meals on DCE decline further and soybean meal spots are steady with some decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne. China's meals markets is negative when the decline of pigs raising is more than expected due to the spread of ASF, and there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers are not optimistic about the market outlook and maintain cautious about market involvement, so the cottonseed meal market is negative amid slow delivery. However, its prices haven't declined as the cottonseed oil mills is under low operation rate due to environmental protection and bad market, and the stockpiling before holiday is still underway. Short-term cottonseed meals will move weakly in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.75)
