Today (Jan. 16th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean slumped below 900 cents in overnight trading upon a report that the U.S. trade representative said that there was no progress made on structural issues during trade talks with China. Meal futures extend their losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and soybean meal spots also inch lower in dull trade. The price goes down by 10-40 yuan/tonne to 2,710-2,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,740, Shandong 2,710-2,750, Jiangsu 2710-2780, Dongguan 2,730-2,780, and Guangxi 2,760-2,780). Global soybean supply has been suffering from abundant Brazilian soybean crops, huge US soybean inventory, and resumed Argentina soybean production from a low level in previous year. Moreover, African swine fever is still spreading, with some regions said to have covered up the outbreaks, and the decline in hog stocks has been larger than expected. Traders, with negative sentiment for later demand, are active in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Soybean meal is thus forced to slip. But the stockpiling before the Spring Festival is underway so that soybean meal stock has shown a significant decline of 18% weekly in coastal areas, and there are still buyers waiting in line for goods in some northern factories. And this will help slow down the steep decline of soybean meal price. With ongoing falls of futures, buyers can wait for a steady state to make some replenishment on the dips.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal stays stable to fluctuate today, of which it is 2,080-2,170 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,080, up 10; Guangdong 2,100, down 10; and Fujian 2,170, down 10). Rapeseed crush continues falling this week because some oil mills are not allowed to process their Canadian rapeseed amid tensions between China and Canada. Rapeseed meal price thus remains resilient. But there still exist negative impacts, ranging from off-season aquaculture and bigger-than-anticipated drops in live pig amount under ASF, to heavy pressure in global soybean supply. In addition, China and the US have been preparing for high-level talks later this month. Therefore, rapeseed meal price will be weak to go upward and may fluctuate at a narrow range. Buyers can just take hand-to-mouth buying.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 70,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 52,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market has turned bearish upon its dull demand and cash requirements from some holders. But as there are still signs of price inversion both at home and abroad, and port stock has got a relief from the stockpiling before the Spring Festival. In the coexistence of the bull and the bear, fishemal market will go steady in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today meals on DCE decline further and soybean meal spots fall 10-40 yuan/tonne. China's meals markets is negative when ASF continues to spread in China, the decline of pigs raising is more than expected, and there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers are not optimistic about the market outlook and maintain cautious about market involvement, so the cottonseed meal market is negative amid slow delivery. Cottonseed meal prices today are steady with some decline of 30 yuan/tonne. However, there won't be a big decline as the cottonseed oil mills is under low operation rate due to environmental protection and bad market, and the stockpiling before holiday is still underway. Short-term cottonseed meals will move weakly in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
