Today (Jan. 16th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices extend their declines today. The price goes down further by 6-16 yuan/tonne to settle at 1,886-2,010 yuan/tonne in Shandong. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture gives up 5 yuan to settle at 1,825-1,830 yuan/tonne, and 20% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L remains unchanged at 1,720 yuan/tonne; old corn levels off at 1,845 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L). At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is unchanged at 1,810-1,815 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700-720 g/L). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class new corn is priced steadily at 1,970-1,980 yuan/tonne.
Corn supply has been more and more elastic when planters step efforts to sell corn amid bearish sentiment that China will open its import market after smooth trade talks with the United States, in addition to growing cash needs toward the end of the year. On the other side, downstream enterprises, owning relatively high inventories, have been forcing down their purchasing price with adequate daily arrivals, with a reduction of 6-10 yuan/tonne today. And downstream enterprises have stockpiled less than in the previous year under the deteriorating African swine fever. In the short term, corn price will probably fluctuate to edge down before the Spring Festival due to its oversupply, but its bottom may be propped up as planters are still reluctant to sell on account of planting cost, and there are more grains reserves for rotation in northeastern areas. Buyers can continue to follow the sale pace of local planters.
Sorghum: Imported sorghum prices keep steady today. (US sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,120 yuan/tonne in Shanghai and not offered for out of stocks in Nantong, Zhangjiagang and Guangdong. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,200 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,180 in Shanghai, 2,250 in Nantong, 2,180-2,200 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and not offered in Guangdong; dried sorghum levels off at 2,310 in Tianjin, 2,350-2,360 in Nantong and 2,320 yuan/tonne in Qingdao. Domestic sorghum price stays stable today: In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain unchanged at 1,900 and 2,020 yuan/tonne Hinggan League, 2,000 and 2,100-2,140 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 1,940 yuan/tonne in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,240 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Baicheng, and raw sorghum is 1920-1940 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum sacks 2,040 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, there is no quotation in Qiqihar; raw sorghum goes down by 20 yuan to 1,900 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum with freight both remains unchanged at 2,040 yuan/tonne in Daqing; and dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,200 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne.
Barley: Barley price holds steady today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,250 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and 2,380 in Tianjin, and bulk raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,250 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,120 yuan/tonne in Nantong; French barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,080-2,090 yuan/tonne in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: raw sorghum is priced steadily at 1,900 yuan/tonne in Guangdong).
Spot markets of port sorghum and barley have been curbed by following two aspects. First, port sorghum and barley, as energy feed substitute to corn, have lost their price advantage against domestic corn. Second, market demand has turned light upon reduced feed consumption since hog industry has been plagued by ongoing epidemic so that hog farmers have been trying to slaughter their breeding pigs before the Spring Festival while drastically decreasing piglet replenishment. However, the market has become more willing to support the price on account of supply tensions as port sorghum has nearly gone out of stock. And port barley, supported by its stubbornly high cost and subject to the policies of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy, has been pressing down importers so that its later import volume will probably further decrease, which will in turn bring some support at its bottom. As a result, barley will find little room for price adjustments amid strong confidence in supporting the price by the market. In the coexistence of the bull and the bear, port grain price remains stable today, and port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to go weak with some fluctuations in the short term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
