Today (Jan. 17th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price keeps steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 4,000 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is at 3,200 yuan/tonne and the GM is not offered. US soybean is sent to inch higher by technical selling and unfavorable weather conditions in South America. However, domestic import soybean market is still capped by sluggish shipment on the distribution market. Generally speaking, imported soybean price will likely stay stable with slight declines in distribution market recently.
Cottonseed: The cottonseed market is limited by decreased demand for oil mills are cautious in purchasing and inactive in powering on their machines amid poor performance of cotton by-products. However, China's cottonseed market is supported by the low trading of cotton ginning plants in view of less and less cottonseed supply and its current low prices as well as traffic tensions and expensive freight before Spring Festival. Cottonseed prices is hard to rise or fall for present and in the short run may move in narrow range. Oil mills are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean posted technical rebounds last night, but oil futures point to losses on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. In the spots market, soybean oil and palm oil both post partial price declines in light trading. Short-term US soybean may present narrow fluctuations for the game between weather concerns in South American and no purchase for now by China. And in China, the African swine fever has exerted a greater-than-expected impact on live hog numbers, under which operation rate has dropped drastically for swelling soybean meal stocks. And traders are active in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Meanwhile, the market is still in the peak season for stockpiling in the run up to the Spring Festival with decent demand at low prices. Therefore, oil mills are propping up the price amid declining inventories of soybean oil. Overall, short-term oil market will find little room for callbacks, and may consolidate in fluctuation before the completion of the stockpiling. Buyers can wait to replenish properly on the dips after this round of callbacks.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is priced at 5,450-5,560 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, with a partial decline of 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,430-5,440, Rizhao 5,480, Zhangjiagang 5,560, and Guangzhou 5,450).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,440-4,530 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,520-4,530, up 20; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,500, down 40; Guangzhou 4,440, down 30; and Xiamen 4,500, down 30).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil steadily goes up today, of which it is 6,230-6,430 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10 yuan/tonne partially. (Fujian not offered; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 6,300, down 50). Inventories of soybean oil and rapeseed oil have both fallen for stockpiles underway in the run up to the festival. In addition, several cargoes of rapeseed have been sealed up for commodity checks due to tensions between China and Canada, including two cargoes arriving in Guangxi and Fujian this week. As a result, rapeseed oil stock has been declining since a growing number of oil mills have had to turn off their equipment. Rapeseed oil market is thus buoyed. But global soybean supply has come under pressure, in addition to higher-level trade talks between China and the US later this month, so rapeseed oil will have limited space to trend up, and may follow its futures to present frequent fluctuations. Buyers are suggested not to force up the price to high.
Cottonseed oil: Oils on DCE today go lower, and soybean oil spots fall 10-20 yuan/tonne. China's oils market is negative for there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Moreover, as oils for blending, cottonseed oil turnover is not much. So its upward potential is curbed and prices are stable for present. However, the cottonseed oil prices are supported by the conditions that the stockpiling before holiday is still underway, and prices of cottonseed oil hit a low of recent years amid limited output and trading of oil mills. Short-term cottonseed oil prices are likely to move at a narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
