Today (Jan. 18th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean kicked up above 900 cents last night on adverse weather in South America. And meal futures post rebounds on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and soybean meal spots steadily inch higher with decent trading at low prices. Specifically, the price goes up by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,700-2,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,740, Shandong 2,700-2,750, Jiangsu 2,700-2,780, Dongguan 2,730-2,780, and Guangxi 2,740-2,780). Operation rate for rapeseed has declined drastically since several cargoes of Canadian rapeseed have been in the process for commodity inspections, in addition to ongoing stockpiling in the run up to the festival. Soybean meal is thereby buoyed to rebound. However, global soybean stocks have been pegged at a high level. What’s more, later demand for soybean meal will remain as a concern since individual farmers have exited intensively under rampant African swine fever and environmental policies, under which live pig number will post a bigger-than-forecast drop, even by 20%-30% after the Spring Festival. Hence, there will be little room for rebounds under strained fundamentals along with a negative landscape for later market. And while the market has earned some supports from few arrivals of soybean in the first quarter, it will come under pressure from growing arrivals in the second one. On the state side, Vice Premier Liu He will visit Washington for trade talks on January 30 and 31, and China is said to cut its value-added tax from 10%to 6%, which will help reduce import cost. Participants can pay attention to trade talk progress, and buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips if out of stock and be cautious in forcing up the price.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal edges up today, of which it is 2,100-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,100, stable; Guangdong 2,120, stable; and Fujian 2,190, up 10). Amid tensions between China and Canada, five out of eight rapeseed cargoes are not allowed to go processed after unloaded, and the rest three arriving this week still stay at ports. Consequently, rapeseed meal price is boosted to rise by its reduced output under sharp drops in rapeseed crush. However, there are still negative factors including slack aquaculture and an estimated 2% drop in live pig amount under the African swine fever, as well as heavy pressure in soybean supply globally. Moreover, China and the U.S. will hold higher-level trade talks later this month. Therefore, rapeseed meal will find little room for large rises. Buyers are suggested to keep proper stock on the dips and be cautious in forcing up the price.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 68,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 51,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is now pinned down by overall slack consumption and cash requirements by some holders. However, inventory pressure in Peru has been reduced by active trading so that foreign quotation has remained stable. Moreover, port fishmeal has seen more deals with the stockpiling before the festival underway, which has provided some support for holders. In the near term, fishmeal meal market will probably run steadily.
Cottonseed meal: Today meals on DCE rebound after sessions of declines and soybean meal spots see a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal prices revise early declines to a steady level as the cottonseed oil mills is under low operation rate due to the poor market condition, and the stockpiling before holiday is still underway. However, China's meal market is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be 20-30%, and there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement and the demand is not good. So cottonseed meal market is curbed, and its prices in the short run will move weakly in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.78)
