Today (Jan. 18th), the market for grains in China is shown as follows:
Corn: Domestic corn prices stay stable with some declines today. The price goes down further by 6-10 yuan/tonne to settle at 1,886-2,010 yuan/tonne in Shandong. At Jinzhou port, Liaoning, 2018 new corn with 15% moisture goes down by 5 yuan to settle at 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne, and 20% moisture of volume weight over 700 g/L is priced higher by 20 yuan to 1,740 yuan/tonne; old corn edges up by 5 yuan to 1,850 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700 g/L). At Bayuquan port, 2018 new corn is priced steadily at 1,810-1,820 yuan/tonne (volume weight 700-720 g/L). At Shekou port, Guangdong, second-class new corn is priced steadily at 1,970-1,980 yuan/tonne.
Some planters are urged to speed up corn sales by repayment pressure and cash requirements with the Spring Festival just around the corner. What’s more, the market remains tentative upon sustained bearish sentiment that China will be more likely to open its import market for US farm commodities amid their successful talks. On the other side, deep processing enterprises have built up periodical stocks so that they have taken a cautious purchasing tactic to just support their daily consumption. As a result, the price has been cutting down recently, with another reduction of 6-10 yuan/tonne in Shandong today. In the meantime, downstream feed companies have scaled back their stockpiling this year under deteriorating African swine fever, and some have nearly completed. Corn market is predicted to fluctuate to go weak due to its oversupply periodically. However, some planters tend to hoard and wait on account of such factors as planting cost, so that the downward space for corn price may be restricted. Buyers can pay attention to sales paces by the end of this month. By the way, China’s Ministry of Agriculture has introduced a plan to boost soybean planting to 10 million Mu (1647369.21 acres) in 2019, and corn planting areas may be reduced for this. Participants can keep an eye on the subsidy scheme for soybean and corn planters in NE China in February.
Sorghum: Imported sorghum prices keep steady today. (US sorghum: raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,120 yuan/tonne in Shanghai and not offered for out of stocks in Nantong, Zhangjiagang and Guangdong. Australian sorghum: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,200 yuan/tonne in Tianjin, 2,180 in Shanghai, 2,250 in Nantong, 2,180-2,200 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and not offered in Guangdong; dried sorghum levels off at 2,310 in Tianjin, 2,350-2,360 in Nantong and 2,320 yuan/tonne in Qingdao. Domestic sorghum price stays stable today: In Inner Mongolia, raw sorghum and dried sorghum remain unchanged at 1,900 and 2,020 yuan/tonne Hinggan League, 2,000 and 2,100-2,140 yuan/tonne in Chifeng; and raw sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 1,940 yuan/tonne in Tongliao. In Jilin Province, dried sorghum with freight is unchanged at 2,240 yuan/tonne in Changchun, raw sorghum sacks and dried sorghum with freight are both at 2,000 yuan/tonne in Songyuan, bulk dried sorghum with freight is 2,120 yuan/tonne in Baicheng, and raw sorghum is 1920-1940 yuan/tonne and dried sorghum sacks 2,040 yuan/tonne in Taonan. In Heilongjiang Province, there is no quotation in Qiqihar; raw sorghum and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,900 yuan/tonne and 2,000 yuan/tonne in Daqing; and dried sorghum with freight levels off at 2,040 yuan/tonne in Heihe. In Shanxi Province, raw sorghum is unchanged at 2,100 yuan/tonne in Yuncheng, bulk dried sorghum with freight is priced steadily at 2,210 yuan/tonne in Jinzhong, and raw sorghum with freight and dried sorghum with freight remain unchanged at 1,960 and 2,160 yuan/tonne.
Barley: Barley price holds steady today. (Australian barley: raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,250 yuan/tonne in Qingdao and 2,380 in Tianjin, and bulk raw sorghum remains unchanged at 2,250 in Nantong; Canadian barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,120 yuan/tonne in Nantong; French barley: raw barley is unchanged at 2,080-2,090 yuan/tonne in Nantong; Ukrainian barley: raw sorghum is priced steadily at 1,900 yuan/tonne in Guangdong).
Spot markets of port sorghum and barley have been curbed by following two aspects. First, port sorghum and barley, as energy feed substitute to corn, have lost their price advantage against domestic corn. Second, market demand has turned light upon reduced feed consumption since hog industry has been plagued by ongoing epidemic so that hog farmers have been trying to slaughter their breeding pigs before the Spring Festival while drastically decreasing piglet replenishment. However, the market has become more willing to support the price on account of supply tensions as port sorghum has nearly gone out of stock. And port barley, supported by its stubbornly high cost and subject to the policies of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy, has been pressing down importers so that its later import volume will probably further decrease, which will in turn bring some support at its bottom. As a result, barley will find little room for price adjustments amid strong confidence in supporting the price by the market. In the coexistence of the bull and the bear, port grain price remains stable today, and port sorghum and barley markets are predicted to go weak with some fluctuations in the short term.
(USD $1=CNY 6.78)
