Today (Jan. 21st), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean extended its gains last Friday, and meal futures also continue to rise on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots follow to increase and attract some deals for the festival at low prices. The price goes up by 10-30 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,730-2,800 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,760, Shandong 2,740-2,750, Jiangsu 2,730-2,800, Dongguan 2,750-2,800, and Guangxi 2,750-2,820). Soybean supply may tighten from March to the first half of April under few arrivals in the first quarter, coupled by lower soybean harvest forecasts for Brazil and Argentina due to adverse weather. Moreover, rapeseed crush has dwindled to a low level with eight cargoes of Canadian rapeseed waiting for commodity inspections in coastal areas amid tensions between China and Canada. And the market is still stockpiling for the festival. Soybean meal market is thus buoyed to embrace for short-term bounce. However, global soybean stocks have been pegged at a high level. What’s more, individual farmers have exited intensively under rampant African swine fever and environmental policies, under which live pig number will likely drop by over 20% after the Spring Festival. In this case, soybean meal demand will remain as a concern so that traders are active in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Therefore, there will be limited room for soybean meal to rebound amid a gloomy outlook for later market. Participants can pay attention to trade talks later this month, and buyers are suggested to replenish for safety stocks on the dips but not to chase the price up excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it is 2,120-2,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a rise of 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,100, stable; Guangdong 2,140, up 20; and Fujian 2,220, up 30). Operation rate will keep falling in the next two weeks since oil mills have to stop for their eight cargoes of rapeseed awaiting commodity inspections amid strained tensions between China and Canada. And thus, oil mills are propping up the price for output drops of rapeseed meal. Rapeseed meal market is naturally buoyed to rally. But there will be no price surges for the following factors. For one thing, aquaculture has been in slack season, and insiders warn that live pig number will likely drop by over 20% after the Spring Festival due to the body blow from African swine fever. For another, global soybean has been under heavy supply pressure. By the way, China and the US will hold higher-level talks later this month. Buyers are suggested to keep proper stocks and remain cautious in forcing up the price.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 68,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 17,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. There are still cases of price inversion both at home and abroad in spite of weak demand, and holders supported by the stockpiling before the festival still offer steadily. Therefore, short-term fishmeal market will probably stay steadily to consolidate.
Cottonseed meal: Today meals on DCE continue to rise and soybean meal spots go up 10-30 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal market is supported as the cottonseed oil mills is under low operation rate due to the poor market condition, and the stockpiling before holiday is still underway. Its prices today is stable with a rise of 30 yuan/tonne. However, China's meals markets are negative as ASF continues to spread in China, sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be 20-30%, and there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. So some prices that are slightly high fall 30 yuan/tonne. Short-term cottonseed meal will move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.79)
