Today (Jan. 21st), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price keeps steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 4,000 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is at 3,200 yuan/tonne and the GM is not offered. US soybean is buoyed to tick higher by optimistic forecasts for the meeting outcome between China and the United States. Nevertheless, domestic soybean market is still damped by sluggish shipments on the distribution market. Overall, imported soybean price will likely stay stable with slight declines in distribution market recently.
Cottonseed: The cottonseed prices in China today partially rise 0.01-0.02 yuan/kg, for the low trading of cotton ginning plants in view of less and less cottonseed supply and its current low prices as well as expensive freight. However, the cottonseed market is limited by decreased demand for oil mills are cautious in purchasing and inactive in powering on their machines amid serious losses in crushing. Owing to some improvement of products in downstream, short-term cottonseed is likely to stay stable with some rise. Oil mills may make small replenishment upon low prices if out of stock.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean posted another rise last Friday upon positive predictions for US-China trade talks. Domestically, oil futures also point to wide gains on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and soybean oil and palm oil spots both go up with light trading volume. Soybean oil inventories have been sliding for stockpiles before the festival, with a foreign-owned company buying up soybean oil in East China. Insiders forecast that live hog number will fall by over 20% after the Spring Festival as the impact by African swine fever is worse than expected, so that traders are active in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. What’s more, operation rate for rapeseed crush has slumped to a low level when several cargoes of Canadian rapeseed are still trapped in tardy customs clearance amid tensions between China and Canada. Domestic oil market is thus boosted to surge, and will largely maintain gains in the short term.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is priced at 5,580-5,720 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up by 40-120 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,610-5,620, Rizhao 5,600, Zhangjiagang 5,720, and Guangzhou 5,580).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,580-4,660 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 60-80 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 4,640-4,650, up 80; Rizhao not offered; Zhangjiagang 4,660, up 80; Guangzhou 4,580-4,600, up 60; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil rises today, of which it is 6,320-6,520 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up 30-50 yuan/tonne. (Fujian not offered; Guangdong not offered; and Guangxi 6,400, up 80). Operation rate will keep falling in the next two weeks since oil mills have to stop for their eight cargoes of rapeseed awaiting commodity inspections amid strained tensions between China and Canada, and rapeseed oil stockpiles have dwindled by 4% to 520,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week. In addition, traders are taking the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals under the big blow of African swine fever. Rapeseed oil market thus gets a boost. But global soybean supply is under pressure, and rapeseed oil market will fall bearish once any deal is reached as scheduled in trade talks later this month, and it will likely present fluctuations later. Buyers can buy on the dips for proper stocks and remain cautious in chasing up the price.
Cottonseed oil: Oils on DCE today experience a mild rise while soybean oil spots go up 40-120 yuan/tonne. And cottonseed oil prices are stable with a rise of 50-100 yuan/tonne due to oil mills' mindset to hold onto goods as the stockpiling before holiday is still underway, and prices of cottonseed oil hit a low of recent years with limited output. However, China's oils market is negative for there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Moreover, there is no obvious trading volume of cottonseed oil, which is blending oils. So its prices in the short run is likely to go strong, following staple oils.
(USD $1=CNY 6.79)
