Soybean: Soybean stocks has seen a decline this week upon crush rallies to 1.68 Mln tonnes. This week (as of Jan. 18th), imported soybean stock in domestic coastal areas totals 5,614,300 tonnes, down 173,400 tonnes by 3.00% from 5,787,700 tonnes, yet up by 18.13% from 4,750,900 tonnes of the same period last year. Port soybean stock is forecast to go down gradually in the first quarter due to its low-key arrivals in January to March, 2019.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Soybean meal pressure has continued to ease amid strong trading recently buoyed by the stockpiling for the festival, despite a rally in soybean crush. As of Jan. 18th, soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills is 843,500 tonnes, down 164,100 tonnes by 16.29% from 1,007,600 tonnes last week, and down by 12.79% from 967,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean meal stock is predicted to slow down its declines next week for another crush rise to 1.80 Mln tonnes, in spite of the replenishment before the Spring Festival.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills has experienced another drop this week for quick delivery before the festival. On the week as of Jan. 18th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 3,041,200 tonnes unfinished, down 404,300 tonnes by 11.73% from 3,445,500 tonnes last week and sharply by 38.15% from 4,917,700 tonnes of the same period last year. Customers remain cautious in buying upon forward basis after suffering heavy losses from such contracts in 2018, coupled by negative sentiment for later market among downstream buyers.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
