Today (Jan. 22nd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean market closed yesterday, and today, Globex and meals on the Dalian Commodity Exchange both fluctuate to edge down. Soybean meal spots steadily fluctuate amid lighter trading. Specifically, the price steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,700-2,820 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,760, Shandong 2,740-2,750, Jiangsu 2,700-2,820, Dongguan 2,740-2,820, and Guangxi 2,750-2,820). Soybean meal stocks have dropped by 16% weekly to 840,000 tonnes in coastal areas amid stockpiles for the festival, and soybean supply may get tight from March to the first half of April due to its few arrivals in the first quarter. Besides, the production outlook for Brazilian soybean has turned a little gloomy by dry weather, whilst US soybean maintains relatively firm. Therefore, meal prices are shored up. But the market shows negative sentiment toward soybean meal demand after the the Spring Festival as the African swine fever is more severe than forecast, in addition to adequate supply of global soybean. Therefore, soybean meal market remains unclear in the middle to long term. There are some signs of fluctuation for adjustments in futures trading, so buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steps down today, of which it is 2,120-2,220 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,120, down 10; Guangdong 2,130, down 10; and Fujian 2,220, stable). Operation rate will continue dropping in the next two weeks as eight cargoes of Canadian rapeseed have to wait for commodity inspections. Under this, rapeseed meal will see declines in output so that oil mills are propping up the price. However, aquaculture has been in slack season, and the market warn that live pig number will likely drop by over 20% after the Spring Festival due to a worse-than-anticipated impact from African swine fever. Amid negative predictions for later meal demand and heavy pressure in global soybean supply, as well as higher-level trade talks between China and the US, there will be little room for rapeseed meal market to surge. Buyers had better be cautious in forcing up the price and just wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 66,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 16,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. There is still price inversion both at domestic and foreign markets, and port stockpiles have fallen upon ongoing stockpiles before the Spring Festival; hence, the market is shored up to quote steadily. In the short term, fishmeal market will stay stable to consolidate.
Cottonseed meal: Today soybean meal spots move 10-20 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal prices today are stable with some rises of 10-30 yuan/tonne as the cottonseed oil mills is under low operation rate due to the poor market condition, and the stockpiling before holiday is still underway. However, China's meals markets is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be 20-30%, and there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement and the new orders are not good. So the upward potential for cottonseed meal is curbed, and its prices in the short run will move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.80)
