Today (Jan. 23rd), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean futures fell on Tuesday on a report by the Financial Times that the Trump administration had canceled trade talks, which was later denied by the White House. Today, meal futures fluctuate to adjust on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and soybean meal spots steadily go ups and downs amid light trading, despite some deals at low prices for stockpiles before the festival. The price steadily fluctuates by 10-20 yuan/tonne to 2,710-2,800 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,760, Shandong 2,730-2,750, Jiangsu 2,710-2,820, Dongguan 2,750-2,820, and Guangxi 2,760-2,820). Operation rate in rapeseed oil mills has touched a low point since eight cargoes of rapeseed have been waiting for commodity inspections due to strained tensions between China and Canada. Soybean meal stock has continued dropping in coastal areas with stockpiling for the festival underway. Moreover, soybean supply may get tight domestically from March to the first half of April as its arrival has declined by 21% in the first quarter against a year earlier. And US soybean will post no slump but to go strong under speculation on weather conditions in South America. Therefore, meal price will continue to be shored up. However, live hog amount may drop sharply after the Spring Festival under the outbreaks of the African swine fever, so that the market is negative toward the demand from hog breeding. The price rise of soybean meal is thus curbed, with no rise in fluctuation in recent two days. Later market still remains gloomy, and buyers need to be cautious ahead of the US-China trade talks later this month.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal goes up today, of which it is 2,130-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,130, up 10; Guangdong 2,200; and Fujian 2,230, up 10). Relationship between China and the US has been more uncertain upon US seeking extradition of Huawei Meng Wanzhou and its rejection a trade planning meeting with Beijing this week. Moreover, 8 vessels loaded with rapeseed are still not allowed to be processed amid tensions between China and Canada, so that several oil mills have already halted in coastal areas. Rapeseed oil has thus posted an output reduction. As a result, oil mills are propping up the price amid its output drops. But there will be no large price rise amid slack demand from aquaculture, ongoing outbreaks of the ASF and heavy pressure in global soybean supply. Buyers can just wait on the sidelines for guidance from any update.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price and can be traded with price negotiations, with normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 65,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 16,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,210 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,510 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market is now shored up by stable quotation in foreign market, price inversion both at home and abroad, as well as reduced inventories amid improve trading buoyed by stockpiles before the Spring festival. Amid firm quotation among holders, fishmeal market will stay stable to consolidate in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today cottonseed meal spots are stable with some fluctuations of 10-20 yuan/tonne. China's meals markets is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be 20-30%, and there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement and the new orders are not good. So the upward potential for cottonseed meal is curbed, and its prices are stable presently. However, the prices are hard to decline as the cottonseed oil mills is under low operation rate due to the poor market condition, and the stockpiling before holiday is still underway. The prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.80)
