Today (Jan. 24th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Amid rebounds of US soybean last night and meal futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, soybean meal spots inch higher to attract some stockpiles for the festival at low prices. Specifically, it goes up by 10-30 yuan/tonne to 2,720-2,840 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,760, Shandong 2,730-2,750, Jiangsu 2,720-2,840, Dongguan 2,750-2,840, and Guangxi 2,780-2,820). The price is shored up to reverse its declines to rebound by following factors. In Brazil, high temperatures with low rainfall will lead to a lower-than-forecast soybean production. Domestically, soybean meal stocks have been dropping in coastal areas amid ongoing stockpiles for the festival. And soybean arrivals have declined by 21% in the first quarter compared with a year earlier. However, Chinese importers have been scooping up Brazilian soybean for its low prices. Besides, the market shows negative sentiment for hog breeding after the festival amid predictions for slumps in live hog numbers under the rampant African swine fever. The price rise of soybean meal is thus confined in the short term, and may remain unobserved in the medium and long term. Buyers are suggested to replenish to maintain adequate stockpiles and be cautious in forcing up the price while awaiting guidance from trade talks later this month.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal edges up today, of which it is 2,140-2,230 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,140, up 10; Guangdong 2,200; and Fujian 2,230). Rapeseed oil has seen declines in its output for rapeseed shortage since eight cargoes of rapeseed are still not allowed to be processed amid tensions between China and Canada. Besides, soybean meal stocks have been declining in coastal areas for stockpiles before the festival. But there will be no large price rise amid heavy pressure in global soybean supply and negative sentiment toward later meal consumption for slack demand from aquaculture and a possible 20% drops in live hog numbers amid the ongoing ASF. On the state side, the United States will probably proceed with the formal extradition from?Canada?of Huawei Meng Wanzhou ahead of the deadline for filing, which will?ratchet up tensions between China and Canada if approved. It is a move certain to exert impact on domestic crush and imports of rapeseed. Amid uncertainties in trade talks between China and the United States, buyers can just wait for guidance from updates.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price with limited space for price negotiations and normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 65,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 16,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market inch higher partially: the quotation goes up by 20 USD/tonne to 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and also up by 20USD/tonne to 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Quotations are brought higher since Peruvian factories have got a relief from declining stockpiles available under quick shipments. Meanwhile, domestic market is now shored up by price inversion both at home and abroad and reduced port inventories amid stockpiles before the Spring festival. Overall, fishmeal market will stay stable to consolidate in the near term.
Cottonseed meal: Today meals on DCE rise, and soybean meal spots go up 10-20 yuan/tonne due to the ongoing stockpiling ahead of holiday and the gradual easing of stock pressure. Meanwhile, the cottonseed meal market is bolstered for its crush margin, operation rate and output are all at low level. However, China's meals markets is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be 20-30%, and there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. So cottonseed meal market is curbed, and the prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.79)
