Today (Jan. 29th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price keeps steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 3,980 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is at 3,200 yuan/tonne and the GM is not offered. US soybean futures lost ground upon improved weather conditions in South America including rainfalls in Brazil and liquidation of long positions. Meanwhile, global soybean supply is still ample at present, and domestic soybean market will be still damped by sluggish shipments on the distribution market as the year draws near. Overall, imported soybean price will likely stay stable with slight declines in distribution market recently.
Cottonseed: The cottonseed market holds steady due to the cautious purchase of oil mills for stockpiling under the conditions of the serious cottonseed crush losses as well as the decreased demand factored in the machine halt in more and more oil mills for the upcoming Spring holiday. However, China's cottonseed market is supported by the low trading of cotton ginning plants in view of less and less cottonseed supply and the prices which is at the low level of recent years. Cottonseed prices in the short run are likely to fluctuate in narrow range.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean traded down upon improved weather conditions in South America, and oil futures runs below the close in previous session in spite of some gains. On the spot market, soybean oil remains mostly stable with slight rises and palm oil posts some fluctuations, both clinching few deals. The market is negative toward meal demand after the festival since live pig amount may be hit severely by the ASF, and soybean oil inventories have dropped drastically to around 1.32 Mln tonnes amid stockpiles for the festival; hence, traders are active in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. In addition, soybean supply may get tight later as its arrivals have decreased by 21% in the first quarter compared to one year ago. Oil mills propping up the price, oil market will maintain its strong trend around the Spring Festival. Participants can pay attention to trade talks between China and the United States on Wednesday and Thursday.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is priced at 5,700-5,800 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, up by 10-30 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 5,760-5,790, Rizhao 5,780, Zhangjiagang 5,800, and Guangzhou 5,700).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,670-4,850 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, fluctuating by 20-50 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4,800-4,820, stable; Rizhao 4,850, up 20; Zhangjiagang 4,730-4,740, down 20; Guangzhou 4,670-4,690, down 50; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil goes up, of which it is 6,530-6,690 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, a rise of 20-30 yuan/tonne. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered, and Guangxi 6,570, up 20). The supply may become tight for the decreased stocks of both soybean oil and rapeseed oil under the stockpiling ahead of the holiday, the relation between China and Canada is tense, and only a few volume of forward rapeseed is ordered by oil mills, as well as the soybean arrivals in the first quarter fall by nearly 20% year on year. And traders are taking the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals with negative sentiment toward later meal consumption for the damaging effect of ASF. So the overall market will probably remain firm ahead of the holiday. Buyers should pay attention to the trade talks between China and the United States in following two days, which may lead to market fluctuation and maintain wait-and-see attitudes.
Cottonseed oil: Today oils on DCE continue to rise, and soybean oil spots partially go up 10-30 yuan/tonne. And cottonseed oil prices are a little bit high due to oil mills' mindset to hold onto goods as prices of cottonseed oil hit a low of recent years with limited output, especially for most oil mills in Xinjiang province who stop trading in consideration of low prices. However, China's oils market is negative for there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Moreover, with small volume of cottonseed oil's new order, there is no obvious rise of cottonseed oil when the stockpiling ahead of the holiday is coming to an end. So cottonseed oil may still go strong ahead of the holiday.
(USD $1=CNY 6.73)
