Today (Jan. 30th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price keeps steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 3,980 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is at 3,200 yuan/tonne and the GM is not offered. US soybean fell upon improved weather in South America and worries about uncertainties in US-China trade talks. Meanwhile, global soybean supply is still ample at present, and domestic soybean market will be still damped by light trading on the distribution market as the year draws near. Overall, imported soybean price will likely stay stable with slight declines in distribution market recently.
Cottonseed: The cottonseed market holds steady due to the cautious purchase of oil mills for stockpiling under the conditions of the serious cottonseed crush losses as well as the decreased demand factored in the machine halt in more and more oil mills for the upcoming Spring holiday. However, China's cottonseed market is supported by the low trading of cotton ginning plants in view of less and less cottonseed supply and the prices which is at the low level of recent years. Cottonseed prices in the short run are likely to fluctuate in narrow range.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean and oils on the DCE point to losses upon improved weather in South America and concerns over uncertainties in US-China trade talks. And soybean oil and palm oil are mostly not offered with the Spring Festival approaching and some are priced lower in light trading. Meal demand will turn distressed for a sharp drop in live pig amount under the ASF, and soybean oil inventories have slumped to around 1.32 Mln tonnes amid stockpiles for the festival; hence, traders are active in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. Besides, soybean supply may get tight later as its arrivals have decreased by 21% in the first quarter compared to one year ago. Oil mills propping up the price, oil market will have little room for callbacks and will maintain its strong trend in fluctuation. Participants can pay attention to trade talks between China and the United States on Wednesday and Thursday as there is a concern that talks could be threatened by the Huawei event.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is priced at 5,690-5,800 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 20-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin and Rizhao not offered, Zhangjiagang 5,800, and Guangzhou not offered).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,680-4,820 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin not offered; Rizhao 4,820, down 30; Zhangjiagang 4,730, down 10; Guangzhou 4,680; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil is basically stable today, of which it is 6530-6690 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered, and Guangxi 6,580, up 10). The market is active in the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals on negative sentiment toward meal demand after the festival due to a slump in live hog number under the contagious ASF, in addition to drops in inventories of soybean oil and rapeseed oil. Besides, oil mills have signed few forward contracts for rapeseed cargoes amid tensions between China and Canada and soybean imports have also declined by 20% in the first quarter against a year ago, under which soybean and rapeseed supp;y may get tight later. As oil mills are propping up the price, rapeseed oil market will remain resilient and may consolidate in fluctuation. By the way, the market are worried that the HUAWEI event may shadow the outlook of trade talks between China and the United States today and tomorrow, so buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Cottonseed oil: Cottonseed oil prices are a little bit high due to oil mills' mindset to hold onto goods as prices of cottonseed oil hit a low of recent years with limited output, especially for most oil mills in Xinjiang province who stop trading in consideration of low prices. However, oils on DCE today fall back, and soybean oil spots decline 20-40 yuan/tonne. And if the trade talks between China and US are successful today and tomorrow, China's oil market will become negative. Moreover, the stockpiling ahead of holiday is coming to an end. So cottonseed oil market is curbed, and it may move in narrow range ahead of the holiday.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
