Today (Jan. 30th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean fell upon improved weather in South America and worries about uncertainties in US-China trade talks. Today, meal futures inch lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange, and soybean meal spots follow to slip, with low spot prices and forward basis to attract some deals. Specifically, the price edges down by 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,680-2,800 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,690, Shandong 2,680-2,700, Jiangsu 2,680-2,800, Dongguan 2,710-2,800, and Guangxi 2,720-2,800). While Brazilian soybean has seen growing harvest pressure, domestic market remains negative toward meal demand after the festival with the completion of stockpiles and a possible 20% slump in live pig number under ASF and intensive sales before the festival; thus, soybean meal market is stifled. But in addition to speculations on the weather in Brazil, domestic soybean arrivals have nearly dropped by 20% in the first quarter against one year earlier so that its supply may get tight at the end of this quarter. In the meantime, soybean meal inventory has declined by 12% to 740,000 tonnes in coastal areas. As such, oil mills are propping up the price by reduced stock pressure. Therefore, there is limited space for price declines. Short-term market will likely fluctuate at a narrow range, and trade talks between China and the US today and tomorrow will be pivotal to the market trend. Buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment on the dips and be cautious in forcing up the price.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal holds firm today, of which it is 2,090-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Guangxi 2,090, stable; Guangdong 2,120; and Fujian 2,190). Stockpiles for the festival have eased stock pressure of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Besides, oil mills have signed very few forward contracts for rapeseed cargoes amid tensions between China and Canada, and soybean supply may get tight at the end of this quarter for its imports have declined by near 20% against one year ago. But there are bearish factors including slack demand from aquaculture and severe impacts from the ASF. By the way, the market are worried that the HUAWEI event may shadow the outlook of trade talks between China and the United States today and tomorrow, so buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price with limited space for price negotiations and normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 66,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market is shored up by stable quotation in foreign market and price inversion both at home and abroad. But fishmeal is still in soft demand amid slack season and the ASF. In addition, port shipment turns slow with the completion of stockpiles for the festival. And the market tend to wait on the sidelines in view of growing port stocks amid new arrivals from Peru. Overall, fishmeal price will probably stay stable before the Spring Festival.
Cottonseed meal: Cottonseed meal market holds steady with the low and declining operation rate of cottonseed oil mills and low cottonseed meal output owing to the poor crush margin and the upcoming Spring Festival. However, today meals on DCE continue to decline and soybean meal spots fall 10-20 yuan/tonne. ASF keeps spreading in China, and sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be over 20%. Meanwhile, if the trade talks between China and US are successful today and tomorrow, China's meals market will become negative. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. So cottonseed meal market is curbed, and the prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.72)
