Today (Jan. 29th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Amid losses of US soybean overnight and meal futures on the DCE today upon improved weather conditions in South America, soybean meal spots also edge down in light trading. Specifically, the price goes down by 10-30 yuan/tonne from yesterday to settle at 2,690-2,800 yuan/tonnes in coastal areas. (Tianjin 2,700, Shandong 2,690-2,700, Jiangsu 2,690-2,800, Dongguan 2,720-2,800, and Guangxi 2,720-2,800). Soybean meal market has turned negative upon the end of stockpiles for the festival, in addition to a 20% drop in live hog number for the ASF and high slaughtering rate before the Spring Festival. But the?market?is still in?a?speculation?on?the?weather in South America as Brazilian soybean production has been destroyed by drought conditions. In addition, while domestic soybean supply may get tight as its arrivals have slumped by nearly 20% in the first quarter from a year earlier, soybean meal inventories have declined by 12% weekly to 740,000 tonnes in coastal areas. As such, oil mills are propping up the price by reduced stock pressure. The price fall of soybean is thus confined. China and the United States will hold trade talks on Wednesday and Thursday amid U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s statement that the two sides have made significant progress, and there are 30 days left for the trade truce. And also a rumor told that China would purchase another 5.0 Mln tonnes of soybean if trade talks went on well. Any outcome from trade talks may lead to volatility, so buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: The prices for imported rapeseed meal fall today, of which it is 2,090-2,190 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-30 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,090, down 30; Guangdong 2,120; and Fujian 2,190, down 30). And traders are taking the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals with negative sentiment toward later meal consumption for the slack aquaculture in winter and the damaging effect of ASF, so the market is dragged down. However, the downward potentials will be curbed by the tight supply later given that the relationship between China and Canada is tense, and only a few volume of forward rapeseed is ordered by oil mills, as well as the soybean arrivals in the first quarter fall by nearly 20% year on year. In the short term, rapeseed meal market will move at a narrow range. Buyers should pay attention to the trade talks between China and the United States in following two days, which may lead to market fluctuation and maintain wait-and-see attitudes.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price with limited space for price negotiations and normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 66,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market is shored up by stable quotation in foreign market and price inversion both at home and abroad. But fishmeal is still in soft demand , coupled by the completion of stockpiles and the holiday for the festival, so holders tend to wait and provide stable quotations with growing arrivals from Peru. Overall, fishmeal price will probably stay stable before the Spring Festival.
Cottonseed meal: The stock pressure of soybean meal is gradually eased. Moreover, due to its crush margin and the upcoming Spring Festival, operation rate is at a low level and in decline, and with the low cottonseed meal output, its market will hold steady. However, today meals on DCE continue to decline and soybean meal spots fall 10-30 yuan/tonne. Meanwhile, China's meals markets is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, and sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be over 20%, as well as there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. So cottonseed meal market is curbed, and the prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.73)
