Today (Jan. 28th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean closed with gains last Friday. But meal futures fluctuate to slip on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and soybean meal spots steadily edge down in light trade. Specifically, the price goes down 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 2,710-2,830 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,730, Shandong 2,720-2,730, Jiangsu 2,710-2,820, Dongguan 2,720-2,830, and Guangxi 2,750-2,820). The market has predicted a sharp decline of 20% for live pig amount in light of ASF and high slaughtering rate before the festival, so that traders are active in taking the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals with gloomy sentiment for later meal demand. Soybean meal market is thus curbed. But the market is still in a speculation on the weather in South America as Brazilian soybean production has been destroyed by drought conditions. And oil mills are propping up the price for a slump of 20% in soybean arrival in the first quarter from a year earlier. Therefore, there may be limited room for price declines. Amid uncertainties in trade talks between China and the United States later this month, the market still remains cautious. Overall, soybean meal market will probably fluctuate to adjust in the short term, and buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal inches higher today, of which it is 2,130-2,210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, steadily increasing by 10 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,120; Guangdong 2,170, up 10; and Fujian 2,210). Rapeseed meal market has been shored up by its inventory drain to 11,000 tonnes in coastal areas last week amid ongoing stockpiles for the festival. But traders are taking the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals with negative sentiment toward later meal consumption for slack aquaculture in winter and a possible 20% decline in live hog amount after the Spring Festival under the contagious African swine fever, so the market is dragged down. In the short term, rapeseed meal market will broadly fluctuate at a narrow range. By the way, there being uncertainties in trade talks between China and the United States later this month, buyers are suggested to maintain safety inventories on the dips and be cautious in chasing up prices.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price with limited space for price negotiations and normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 65,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market turns bullish upon stable quotation in foreign market, price inversion both at home and abroad, as well as reduced inventories by stockpiles before the Spring festival. But the market tends to take a wait-an-see attitude on account of reduced stockpiles from feed companies before the holiday and overall dismal demand; hence, fishmeal price will probably stay stable before the Spring Festival.
Cottonseed meal: The stock pressure of soybean meal is gradually eased. Moreover, due to its crush margin and the upcoming Spring Festival, operation rate is at a low level and in decline, and with the low cottonseed meal output, its market will hold steady. However, today meals on DCE decline slightly with fluctuations and soybean meal spots partially fall 10-20 yuan/tonne. Meanwhile, China's meals markets is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, and sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be over 20-30%, as well as there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. So cottonseed meal market is curbed, and the prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.75)
