Today (Jan. 25th), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: US soybean edged up yesterday, and meal futures inch lower on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today. Soybean meal spots follow to go down and attract some stockpiles at low prices yet fewer than yesterday. The price sheds by 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday to settle at 2,730-2,820 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 2,740, Shandong 2,730-2,740, Jiangsu 2,730-2,820, Dongguan 2,740-2,820, and Guangxi 2,750-2,820). Chinese importers have bought in another 12 cargoes of Brazilian soybean for fat crush margins, but the market holds negative sentiment toward hog breeding after the festival since live hog amount has been pulled down violently by the African swine fever. Besides, trade talks between China and the US will be held soon, and Canadian rapeseed arriving at ports before has got the green light in China. Soybean meal price thereby reverses its gains to fall fractionally. Nevertheless, its trading volume nearly hit 400,000 tonnes yesterday with stockpiles before the festival underway, which, coupled by quick shipments among oil mills, has taken some pressure off in its inventories. In addition, oil mills are quite willing to prop up the price after a 21% drop in soybean arrival in the first quarter from a year earlier, so that soybean meal price will remain resilient. Overall, the price will likely maintain narrow fluctuations in the short term and will be resilient before March with some stockpiling after the Spring Festival, but it may fall negative after intensive arrivals of second-quarter soybean.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for imported rapeseed meal steps down today, of which it is 2,120-2,210 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Guangxi 2,120, down 20; Guangdong 2,160, Fujian 2,210, down 20). As the market remains negative toward later meal consumption for slack aquaculture in winter and an over 20% decline in live hog amount after the Spring Festival under the contagious African swine fever, in addition to huge pressure in global soybean supply, rapeseed meal market is dragged down. But there is no pressure in rapeseed meal supply amid ongoing stockpiling before the festival. In the near term, rapeseed meal will not slump but may fluctuate at a narrow range. Amid uncertainties in trade talks between China and the US later this month, buyers can briefly wait on the sidelines for new guidance.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price with limited space for price negotiations and normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 65,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 49,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 15,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Fishmeal market turns bullish upon stable quotation in foreign market, price inversion both at home and abroad, as well as reduced inventories by stockpiles before the Spring festival. But stockpiles will be less with the coming of the Preliminary Eve next week. Amid overall stable quotation among holders, fishmeal market will probably stay stable before the Spring Festival.
Cottonseed meal: The stockpiling ahead of holiday is still underway and the stock pressure of soybean meal is gradually eased. Moreover, for its crush margin, operation rate and output are all at low level, the cottonseed meal market is bolstered. However, today meals on DCE decline slightly with fluctuations and soybean meal spots fall 10-20 yuan/tonne. Meanwhile, China's meals markets is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, and sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be over 20-30%, as well as there will be a higher-level US-China negotiation at the end of this month. Buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. So cottonseed meal market is curbed, and the prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
