Today (Feb. 1st), the market for meals in China is shown as follows:
Soybean meal: Soybean futures post gains on the Globex upon President Trump’s statement that the US has made substantial progress in this round of trade talks with China and China will purchase another 5.0 Mln tonnes of soybean. But this is bearish to domestic market so that meal futures continue to narrow rises on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and the upward space of soybean meal is thus confined. Soybean meal spots go up to attract some replenishment at low prices, but its trading volume is small with the completion of stockpiles for the festival. There will be a new round of trade talks between China and the US in mid-February when the two countries may manage to decide on final results. Besides, soybean supply may get tight for its arrivals might have dropped sharply by nearly 20% in the first quarter against one year ago, whilst inventory pressure of soybean meal has got a relief from bulk stockpiles before. Therefore, soybean meal is shored up to rebound as oil mills are propping up the price. But meal demand remains as a concern due to great influences on live hog numbers from the contagious African swine fever, so the price rebound potential is confined. Overall, soybean meal price may maintain bearish in middle to long term, and buyers are suggested not to force up the price excessively.
Imported rapeseed meal: The price for rapeseed meal goes down by 20 yuan/tonne partially to settle at 2,100-2,200 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. Oil mills have booked very few rapeseed cargoes for shipment after March amid strained tensions between China and Canada, whilst soybean arrivals have also been few in February and March, under which soybean and rapeseed supply may get tight at the end of this quarter. And meal price may thus get a boost. But the market remains extremely negative toward soybean meal demand after the festival under slack aquaculture and the hard blow of the ASF, which may weigh on the rapeseed meal market. Overall, short0term market will probably fluctuate in a narrow range, and buyers can just wait on the sideline over the Spring Festival holiday.
Imported fishmeal: Today, imported fishmeal keeps steady in price with limited space for price negotiations and normal shipment at port. Quotation at ports: it is 9,600-9,700 yuan/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD with 65% protein content, 10,400-10,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content and 10,700-10,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stocks at port: Huangpu 67,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 31,000 tonnes, Shanghai 50,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 12,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes and 4,000 tonnes at other ports. Spot quotations (FOB) in foreign market keeps steady: the quotation is unchanged at 1,230 USD/tonne for Peruvian ordinary SD fishmeal with 65% protein content and at 1,530 USD/tonne for super SD fishmeal with 68% protein content. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Chilean ordinary fishmeal with 65% protein content is quoted steadily at 1,410 USD/tonne, and prime with 68% protein content at 1,550 USD/tonne. Domestic fishmeal market is shored up by stable quotation in foreign market and price inversion both at home and abroad, but the market has been quiet for continuously dismal demand and strong atmosphere for the festival. Overall, fishmeal price will probably stay stable before the Spring Festival.
Cottonseed meal: Today soybean meal spots rise 10-30 yuan/tonne. Cottonseed meal market holds steady with the low and declining operation rate of cottonseed oil mills and the low cottonseed meal output owing to the poor crush margin and the upcoming Spring Festival. However, China's meals markets is negative as ASF continues to spread in China, and sources said the decline of pigs raising after holiday is expected to be over 20%, as well as the optimistic result from the China-US trade talks that just finished. Moreover, buyers maintain cautious about market involvement. So cottonseed meal market is curbed, and the prices in the short run are likely to move in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.73)
