Today (Feb. 13th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price keeps steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 3,980 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is at 3,200 yuan/tonne and the GM is not offered. US soybean is buoyed to rise by optimism about prospects for a U.S. trade agreement with China. However, domestic soybean supply will get loose as China is poised to buy more US soybean later if trade talks go on well. In the meantime, global soybean supply is still ample at present. And domestic soybean market is still damped by light trading on the distribution market as some distributors are still on vacation for the Spring Festival. Overall, imported soybean price will likely stay stable with slight declines in distribution market recently.
Cottonseed: The purchase of cottonseed is not much now due to the following conditions: the cotton by-products market is not good; the crush in oil mills shows loss; the transportation hasn't resumed for the holiday; the trade activities are weak; some cottonseed oil mills has had some stock before holiday. However, China's cottonseed market is supported by the low trading of cotton ginning plants in view of less and less cottonseed supply and the prices which is at the low level of recent years. The cottonseed in the short run is likely to stay stable with move in narrow range. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy and pay attention to the trade talks.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean inched higher last night upon technical buying and President Donald Trump’s tweet with expectations for US to strike a trade deal with China. Oil futures fluctuate narrowly on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today, and on the spots market, soybean oil stays stable with slight declines while palm oil posts partial increases in tepid trading. Soybean oil inventory will extend its declines amid another phase of replenishment after the Festival, coupled by large drops in operation rate over the Spring Festival. In addition, soybean supply will probably get tight at the end of the first quarter. Oil mills propping up the price, short-term oil market will maintain its strong trend in fluctuation and will have little room for callbacks or growth. Participants can keep watching this fresh round of trade talks between China and the United States on February 14th and 15th, and buyers can just take hand-to-mouth buying.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is priced at 5,690-5,760 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 5,700-5,710, Rizhao 5,720, Zhangjiagang 5,760, and Guangzhou 5,690-5,700).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,660-4,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, up by 10 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4,770; Rizhao 4,780; Zhangjiagang 4,720, up 10; Guangzhou 4,660-4,680; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil remains basically stable today, of which it is 6,480-6,640 yuan/tonne in coastal areas. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered and Guangxi 6,530, stable). It now takes over 15 days longer than usual to get the approval and issuance of certificate for Canadian rapeseed and GMO crude rapeseed oil amid souring relations between China and Canada, and such uncertainties will also result in fewer cargo purchases for later rapeseed and crude oil. In addition, soybean and rapeseed supply may get tight at the end of this quarter and rapeseed oil inventory has been extending its downward trend after sharp drops in operation rate during the Spring Festival holiday. On the whole, rapeseed oil market will maintain its strong trend in fluctuation, and participants can wait for guidance from this round of trade talks between China and the United States.
Cottonseed oil: US soybeans overnight went up for Trump's optimistic tweets about the US-China trade agreement and the technical buying up, while today oils on DCE move sideways narrowly and soybean oil spots in China stay stable with some decline of 10-20 yuan/tonne to settle at 5690-5760 yuan/tonne. The soybean oil's fluctuation at a narrow range now still hasn't led to a clear effect on cottonseed oil market, taking into account of the offering missing in most cottonseed oil mills during the Chinese spring festival. However, some prices rise a bit against the oil mills' mindset to hold onto goods for higher prices due to the low cottonseed oil output and the low prices level among recent years, as well as the big falling of operation rate during holiday. The cottonseed oil market is predicted to remain stable with strong fluctuation in narrow range.
(USD $1=CNY 6.77)
