Today (Feb. 14th), the market for oilseeds and oils in China is shown as follows:
Oilseeds:
Imported soybean: Imported soybean price keeps steady today, among which non-GM Canadian soybean is not offered for out of stock and the GM old soybean is unchanged at 3,980 yuan/tonne, and non-GM Russian soybean is at 3,200 yuan/tonne and the GM is not offered. US soybean is buoyed to rise by optimism about prospects for a U.S. trade agreement with China. However, domestic soybean supply will get loose as China is poised to buy more US soybean later if trade talks go on well. In the meantime, global soybean supply is still ample at present. And domestic soybean market is still damped by light trading on the distribution market as some distributors are still on vacation for the Spring Festival. Overall, imported soybean price will likely stay stable with slight declines in distribution market recently.
Cottonseed: The purchase of cottonseed is not much now due to the following conditions: the crush in oil mills still shows loss; the transportation hasn't resumed for the holiday; the trade activities are weak; some cottonseed oil mills has make the stockpiling before holiday. However, for the cotton ginning mills are inclined to hoard their existing stocks of cottonseed due to the low price level and short supply, the cottonseed in the short run is likely to stay stable with move in narrow range. Buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy and pay attention to the trade talks.
Oils:
Summary: US soybean futures slid last night and US soybean oil and soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange today also fall and palm oil futures narrowly fluctuate upon the completion of the arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals. On the spots market, soybean oil goes down broadly and palm oil partially in light trading as buyers are waiting on the sidelines. Soybean oil stocks will maintain its downward trend after sharp drops in operation rate during the Spring Festival. Moreover, soybean supply may get tight at the end of this quarter and soybean meal price remains low since hog feeding has been hit hard by the African swine fever. As oil mills tend to support oil price, short-term oil market will have little room for callbacks. Participants can pay attention to this round of trade talks on February 14th and 15th, for the market has showed expectations for the two countries to hammer out a trade deal. And buyers can just wait on the sidelines.
Soybean oil: GB Grade I soybean oil is priced at 5,660-5,700 yuan/tonne in domestic coastal areas, down by 10-40 yuan/tonne. (Tianjin 5,700-5,710, Rizhao 5,700, Zhangjiagang 5,700, and Guangzhou 5,660-5,670).
Palm oil: 24-degree palm oil is mainly priced at 4,670-4,780 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10 yuan/tonne partially. (Tianjin 4,770-4,780; Rizhao 4,770, down 10; Zhangjiagang 4,730, unchanged; Guangzhou 4,670-4,690; and Xiamen not offered).
Imported rapeseed oil: The price for imported rapeseed oil goes down today, of which it is 6,470-6,620 yuan/tonne in coastal areas, down by 10-20 yuan/tonne. (Fujian and Guangdong not offered, and Guangxi 6,490, down 40). The inventory decline of soybean oil and palm oil is predicted to slow down entering the slack season after the festival. In addition, palm oil has seen smaller-than-expected production cuts amid weaker exports. Rapeseed oil market is thus dragged down. However, Canadian rapeseed cargoes have to pass severe-than-usual inspections due to tensions between China and Canada and even some cargoes are said to be recalled for second commodity inspections, so that later rapeseed purchase may be subject to such uncertainties. With underlying rapeseed supply tensions, rapeseed oil market will be resilient and maintain fluctuations to consolidate. Participants can wait for outcomes of the US-China trade talks today and tomorrow.
Cottonseed oil: The prices in China today is stable. And the price in Xinjiang rises 100-200 yuan/tonne amid oil mills' mindset to hold onto goods for higher prices due to the low cottonseed oil output and the low prices level among recent years, as well as the big falling of operation rate during holiday. However, buyers mostly take wait-and-see attitude and predict the upward potential in the short run will not big, and the prices are likely to stay stable with strong fluctuation, because US soybeans overnight took a slight drop; owing to finished arbitrage of buying oils and selling meals, US soybean oil and today's soybean oil on DCE fell back with a decline of 10-40 yuan/tonne for most soybean oil prices; and the market has a optimistic expectation that agreement will be reach between China and US.
(USD $1=CNY 6.76)
