Soybean: Soybean inventory continues to decline amid its few arrivals at port, but the decline is small as operation rate has also dropped sharply for the holiday. This week (as of Feb. 1st), imported soybean stockpiles total 5,331,100 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, a reduction of 71,300 tonnes by 1.32% from 5,402,400 tonnes last week, yet up by 23.78% from 4,306,800 tonnes of the same period last year. Predictably, port soybean stocks will keep falling in the first quarter with few arrivals from January to March, under which soybean supply will likely get tight at the end of this quarter.
Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Soybean meal: Soybean meal stockpiles have reduced slightly due to large drops in operation rate. This week (as of Feb. 1st), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills is 633,500 tonnes, down 110,100 tonnes by 14.81% from 743,600 tonnes last week, and down by 27.95% from 879,300 tonnes of the same period last year. Amid lingering atmosphere of the Spring Festival, soybean meal stockpiles will see few changes due to low operation rate and slow shipment.
Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills has experienced another drop this week. On the week as of Feb. 1st, contracts in domestic main areas hold 1,841,900 tonnes unfinished, down 617,400 tonnes by 25.1% from 2,459,300 tonnes last week and by 65.32% from 5,312,600 tonnes of the same period last year. Customers remain cautious in buying upon forward basis after suffering heavy losses from such contracts in 2018, coupled by negative sentiment for later market among downstream buyers.
Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
