Soybean: Soybean inventory has piled up high amid low operation rate during the Spring Festival. This week (as of Feb. 15th), imported soybean stockpiles total 5,792,500 tonnes in main domestic coastal oil mills, an increment of 461,400 tonnes by 8.65% from 5,331,100 tonnes last week, and by 31.78% from 4,395,500 tonnes of the same period last year. But the inventory will reverse this increase to decline after its crush returns to a normal level, coupled by small imports in the first quarter. Overall, soybean supply may get tight at the end of this quarter, but will get a little loose at the second of half of April. 

　　Fig. 1: China’s coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

      Soybean meal: Soybean meal storage continues to decrease this week with another round of replenishment after the festival, especially with its small output under low operation rate. This week (as of Feb. 15th), soybean meal stock in main domestic coastal oil mills is 565,600 tonnes, down 67,900 tonnes by 10.72% from 633,500 tonnes before the festival, and down by 21.12% from 717,100 tonnes of the same period last year. Soybean meal stock may narrow down its declines with a crush volume of 1.54 Mln tonnes next week as most oil mills will restart their machines, and its inventory will again start to rise in March. 

　　Fig. 2: China’s coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

　　Outstanding contracts: Outstanding contracts of soybean meal in oil mills have increased this week for slow delivery after the festival. On the week as of Feb. 15th, contracts in domestic main areas hold 1,959,600 tonnes unfinished, up 117,700 tonnes by 6.39% from 1,841,900 tonnes before the festival, yet down by 57.56% from 4,617,900 tonnes of the same period last year.

　　Fig. 3: China’s coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years